The matchup is set for Super Bowl LIV at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, as the San Francisco 49ers (15-3) will do battle with the Kansas City Chiefs (14-4) for the Lombardi Trophy. The big game takes place Sunday, Feb. 2, with kickoff set for 6:30 p.m. ET. We analyze the 49ers-Chiefs odds and sports betting lines, while providing NFL betting tips and advice on the Super Bowl LIV matchup.
49ers vs. Chiefs: Super Bowl LIV preview, betting trends and notes
- Both teams have cruised through the playoffs. The 49ers beat the Minnesota Vikings 27-10 in the Divisional Round before taking down the Green Bay Packers 37-20 in the NFC Championship. The Chiefs beat the Houston Texans 51-31 and Tennessee Titans 35-24 in the second and third rounds, respectively.
- The Chiefs are riding a seven-game winning streak dating back to Week 11. The Niners have won four straight games.
- Kansas City played one neutral site game this season, beating the Los Angeles Chargers 24-17 in Mexico City in Week 11.
- Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo threw for a season-low 77 yards while completing six of just eight pass attempts against the Packers in the NFC Championship. The 49ers didn’t need more out of him, as RB Raheem Mostert rushed 29 times for 220 yards and four touchdowns.
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- Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes played the hero in the AFC Championship to get Kansas City to its first Super Bowl since 1969 (SB IV). The 2018 MVP completed 23 of 35 pass attempts for 294 yards and three touchdowns, while rushing for a team-high 53 yards and another score.
- San Francisco’s last Super Bowl appearance was Super Bowl XLVII, which it lost 34-31 to the Baltimore Ravens. The Niners last Super Bowl win was Super Bowl XXIX. They beat the San Diego Chargers 49-26, with QB Steve Young being named MVP.
- The two teams last met in Week 3 of the 2018 season. The Chiefs won 38-27. Garoppolo passed for 251 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. Mahomes went 314-3-0.
- The Niners ranked second in the NFL with 29.9 points per game in the regular season. The Chiefs were fifth with 28.2 PPG.
- The Chiefs (19.3) and 49ers (19.4) ranked seventh and eighth, respectively, in points per game allowed.
49ers vs. Chiefs: Super Bowl LIV odds, betting lines and prediction
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday, Jan. 20, at 8:20 a.m. ET.
Prediction
49ers 32, Chiefs 29
Moneyline (?)
The Chiefs (-118) are favorites for a sixth consecutive game as the official home team in Super Bowl LIV. The 49ERS (+100) are even-money as slight dogs, despite their two 17-point wins in the playoffs. Both teams were 3-1 straight up against cross-conference opponents this season. San Francisco won those games by an average of 13.2 points per game, while Kansas City won by 5.8 PPG against four NFC opponents.
I like the Niners as the slight underdogs. While the Chiefs were able to contain the NFL’s leading rusher in Titans RB Derrick Henry (69 yards, one TD) in the AFC Championship, the 49ers have a multi-headed attack with Mostert, Tevin Coleman (shoulder) and Matt Breida. San Francisco also led the NFL with just 169.2 passing yards allowed per game in the regular season and will force the Chiefs to turn to their little-used rushing game.
Back the underdog in Super Bowl LIV.
Against the Spread (?)
The NINERS (+1.5, -111) offer less value on the spread while being spotted just 1.5 points. The moneyline is the more profitable play with a $10 bet returning $10 in profit, while the same wager here fetches a return of just $9. If you need the extra insurance in case of a 1-point Chiefs’ win, back San Francisco on the spread as a safer play.
San Francisco was 3-1 against the spread in games against AFC opponents this year. Kansas City was just 2-2 ATS in those games. The two-week layoff favors a Chiefs side that went 6-4-1 ATS against teams with equal rest this year, while the Niners were a league-worst 2-5 ATS when playing on equal rest, but the 49ers were 5-0 ATS as underdogs this season.
Over/Under (?)
Those who didn’t enjoy Super Bowl LIII and the 13-3 win for the New England Patriots over the Los Angeles Rams should get their redemption this year. Back the OVER 52.5 (-118) with both teams happy to try their luck in a shootout. The two teams have scored at least 26 points in each of their last four games.
Both teams have hit the Under just eight times through 18 games. KC has topped the projected totals in each of its two playoff games. San Francisco went 1-1.
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Esten’s 2019 NFL betting record: 58-51
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