WHEN: 3:35 p.m. CT
WHERE: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
FORECAST: Sunny, 69 degrees, 4 mph winds
FOLLOW: @therealmarklane, @averydduncan, @arwoodnfl, @ChrisNallsNFL, @Get_Crumped, @AYanez_5
LISTEN: Sports Radio 610 [KILT-AM] and 100.3 The Bull [KLOL]
WATCH: ESPN/ABC (Joe Tessitore & Anthony “Booger” McFarland)
10: carlos hyde’s rank for first downs on the ground
The 29-year-old picked up 55 first downs rushing in 2019, tied with Leonard Fournette, Aaron Jones, and Sony Michel for the 10th-most in the NFL. Houston’s key to victory is to fire up the run game and let Hyde churn yards while the offense melts clock.
9: josh allen’s rushing touchdowns
Guess who had the most rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks in 2019. It wasn’t Lamar Jackson; it was Josh Allen. The former 2018 first-round pick from Wyoming is a dual threat quarterback, and he will find a way to move the chains even if the throws aren’t downfield. Houston will have to be conscious of Allen’s dual threat abilities inside the red zone.
8: houston’s rank on third down conversions
The Texans offense has the eighth-worst third down conversion rate in the league at 43.5%. If the Texans are getting into third-and-longs due to penalties or poor play-calls, the Bills aren’t going to let them off the mat. The key to beating this number is to be more efficient and careful on first and second downs.
7: touchdowns deandre hopkins and darren fells hauled in
The three-time All-Pro receiver and the rejuvenated 33-year-old tight end have each collected seven touchdown receptions. The Texans will need their red zone abilities and third down conversion success to make a difference against the Bills.
6: deshaun watson’s rank for sacks
The Pro Bowl field general took 44 sacks on the season, the sixth-most in the NFL. Bills may not have a defender with over 10.0 sacks, but they have five guys with at least 4.5 sacks. The Bills pass rush is a wave, and Watson will have to weather the storm to keep the Texans’ passing game effective.
5: the texans defense’s sack percentage
Houston’s defense has a 5.0 sack percentage, which is tied with the Atlanta Falcons for the fourth-lowest in the NFL. Among playoff teams, the sack percentage is the second-lowest. Only the Seattle Seahawks’ 4.5% is lower. If the Texans’ pass rush is not getting to Josh Allen, it will be an afternoon chock full of anxiety.
4: the buffalo defense’s yards per carry surrendered
The real number is more like 4.3, but rounding down makes it four. Nevertheless, the Bills defense ranks with the Minnesota Vikings as the 14th-worst in the NFL, which is actually middle of the pack. If there is one area where the Bills can be exploited, compared to their dominant pass defense, it’s on the ground. The Texans need to stay extra committed to the ground game against the Bills.
3: houston’s rank for tackles for loss
The Texans defense has generated 51 tackles for loss in 2019, the third-fewest in the NFL. Houston’s defense was not as disruptive as they have been in recent seasons. Could it have been the loss of J.J. Watt? His presence on the field against the Bills will be a boost, but the problems may be bigger than that.
2: tre’davious white’s rank for opposing passer rating
Among cornerbacks who have started at least 15 games, White’s 44.5 passer rating is the second-lowest in the entire league. Only Stephon Gilmore’s 43.4 is lower. What it indicates is that the Bills secondary features arguably the best cornerback in the game, which is the cherry on top to a sundae of a unit. So much of the battle hinges on how well White can limit receiver DeAndre Hopkins.
1: deshaun watson and josh allen’s rank for game-winning drives
The two young field generals have each executed five game-winning drives in 2019, tied with Russell Wilson for the most overall. Allen and Watson have been the catalyst behind their team’s success. Whoever has the ball last may be the one walking off the field with their first career playoff victory.