Things change quickly in the NFL. It was only a few weeks ago that Dallas crushed Philadelphia on Sunday Night Football, and took command of the NFC East. Despite weekly swings in emotions, The Cowboys mostly maintained control of the division, or at least enough to control their own destiny. But Sunday’s loss in Philadelphia could be the end of the joy ride for the 2019 season. Now Dallas needs one final twist of fate, as they’ll be cheering for Daniel Jones and the New York Giants to accomplish what they were unable to against the Eagles. Before these results really matter though, the Cowboys will need to do their part and take down the Washington Redskins.
Things certainly would have been more straight-forward if Dallas had managed to pull off the victory last week. However, they did get one break heading into Week 17, as they’ll be facing Case Keenum rather than Dwayne Haskins. If you just look at the season averages in EPA per Dropback, Keenum has added .0778 EPA per dropback, while Haskins is averaging -0.176. But these averages don’t necessarily tell the full story. Haskins began with some abysmal showings, but has improved as the season has worn on.
Haskins has shown steady improvement with experience; an indication that is extremely positive for Washington as they enter the offseason and plan for the future. Unfortunately, he was unable to finish the contest against the Giants due to an ankle injury, and he’ll miss the final game of the regular season.
It’s somewhat difficult to determine how much of a drop-off in production we can expect from Haskins to Keenum, but pass location charts can help us pinpoint how the two differ stylistically.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, a large portion of Haskins’ downfield success has come down the seam. He’s been relatively efficient on these routes up to twenty yards downfield. When he attacks beyond this range, he’s primarily done so down the left sideline. Keenum on the other hand, has shown a propensity for short passes. It seems that he prefers to stretch the defense horizontally, as he uses the entire width of the field underneath. His longer passes have primarily targeted the middle of the field.
Stopping Keenum will require limiting yards after the catch, and owning the middle of the field. If Dallas can do these two things, it’s likely that Washington will need the ageless-wonder, Adrian Peterson, to carry the team to victory.
I wouldn’t have predicted Peterson to still be playing at this age, and I certainly wouldn’t have guessed that he’d produce at this level. While he’s not the game-breaking home-run threat he used to be (his longest rush on the season is 29 yards), he’s still able to churn out some impressive production on a below-average offense.
The chart above parses out a running-backs average yards before contact (X-axis) and the average yards after contact (Y-axis). The goal here is to contextualize how much of a running-back’s efficiency relies on the offensive line and situation rather than what he’s creating for himself. It’s certainly not fully indicative of a running-back’s skill, but it gets us a littler closer to the mark. The size and color of the points are related to the number of rush attempts a player has had.
What we see is that despite a lower average for yards before contact, Peterson is still above average in creating yards after contact. It may not always be pretty, but his freakish athleticism has allowed him to stay on the field and continue to produce longer than most.
Overall, the combination of Peterson’s grind-it-out running style with Keenum’s horizontal passing game would suggest that Washington will attempt to control the ball and clock, and hopefully limit Dallas’s opportunities on offense. After Dallas racked up 31 points in their first matchup, this may be the best strategy Washington could hope for.
A multitude of questions saturate the air around this Dallas team: Is this Jason Garrett’s final game as head coach? If so, who are the candidates to watch for? How will the contract negotiations proceed with Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper? In light of this, maintaining focus for a final game when Dallas doesn’t control their own destiny is anything but simple. This team has been difficult to predict all season, and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they fall short again this week. That said, they’ve also been capable of magic. Perhaps they can find just enough for this final hurdle. Hope is a dangerous thing, especially with this team, but it makes for one heck of a journey.
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