Here, in midstream of the fantasy playoffs, we pause this week to examine some of the most disappointing/under-performing players of the 2019 season.
It’s likely you spent a high draft pick on one or two of these dozen players among your leagues, and perhaps they were part of the reason you didn’t qualify for the postseason or were sent packing early, short of the money. If not, count yourself quite fortunate.
Most of these underachievers are strictly performance-based, but we’ve included an injury-wrecked season or two as well as health and availability remain vital components of the game.
Regardless, here’s our disappointing dozen – focusing on the top of the average-draft-position lists at each position – and an accompanying recommendation whether to panic or be patient with an eye on next season.
Patrick Mahomes
Positional average draft position: 1
Current positional ranking (standard-scoring total fantasy points): 12
Numbers to know: Mahomes missed most of three games due to a knee injury and is still averaging a healthy 24.6 fantasy points per contest, but statistical regression has hit as expected following his historic 2018 MVP campaign and it’s hit the hardest when it’s mattered most in fantasy: late in the season. In Mahomes’ last seven full games, he’s tossed only one touchdown pass five times and finished with fewer than 285 yards four times. He only did that twice and four times, respectively, all of last season when he played a full 16 games.
Outlook: (Most definitely) patience. We knew some regression was coming, and it’s only Year 2 for Mahomes as a starter. The midseason knee issue disrupted the flow of his season and the Chiefs’ lack of a consistent No. 2 wide receiver or running game certainly hasn’t helped. Truthfully, neither has an improved defense which has reduced the need for Mahomes to light up the scoreboard week in and week out. In short, Mahomes has been fine as a QB1 – he’s just not the No. 1 overall QB you drafted him to be in the first two rounds.
Baker Mayfield
Positional average draft position: 4
Current positional ranking: 17
Numbers to know: After throwing a rookie-record 27 TD passes and 14 interceptions in 14 games a season ago, Mayfield has tossed 15 scoring passes with 16 picks in 13 contests so far this season, with only three 300-yard games.
Outlook: Patience. Yes, certainly Mayfield hasn’t found a chemistry with his new cast of weapons – particularly a certain three-initialed wide receiver that we’ll discuss later – but like Mahomes, it’s only Year 2 for Mayfield as a starter, and we’ll see what the offseason brings – perhaps some needed offensive-line help or even a coaching change.
Cam Newton
Positional average draft position: 10
Current positional ranking: 49
Numbers to know: Coming off a shoulder injury that cut his 2018 season short, a preseason foot injury cost Newton all but two messy games (11.8 and 16.6 fantasy points) this season.
Outlook: Panic (or, at least, much uncertainty). There is much upheaval in Panther Nation with the firing of Ron Rivera, the only head coach Cam has known since entering the NFL in 2011, and the QB’s time in Carolina may be up as well. Newton will turn 31 next May 11, and his recent health issues likely will serve to limit some of Newton’s greatest play-making strength, which is that of a dominant, 250-pound running threat.
Saquon Barkley
Positional average draft position: 1
Current positional ranking: 31 (entering the Giants’ Week 14 Monday night game).
Numbers to know: The second-year back did miss three games and was unable to finish another due to a high-ankle sprain suffered in Week 3. But even discarding that contest, he’s only cracked double-digit fantasy points in four of eight contests while scoring three TDs after doing so in each of his 16 games as a rookie while totaling 15 scores to finish as fantasy’s No. 2 overall back.
Outlook: Much patience. Like Mahomes, the leg injury has seemed to throw Barkley’s season for a curve, and things only figure to get better with second-year QB Daniel Jones starting from the get-go in 2020 (with, ideally, a healthier cast of weapons and, hopefully, an improved offensive line), helping the whole offensive flow.
Alvin Kamara
Positional average draft position: 3
Current positional ranking: 19
Numbers to know: Kamara has missed two contests (Weeks 7 and 8) due to injury, but his current eight-game TD drought started well before then in Week 4. And yes, incredibly, that drought includes Sunday’s 94-point shootout with the 49ers in the Big Easy. That leaves Kamara stuck on two total touchdowns and five games with double-digit fantasy points after totaling 18 and 10, respectively, in those categories a season ago.
Outlook: Patience. Even though his 2019 numbers have taken a noticeable tumble, he still passes the eye test as one of the league’s most dangerous weapons out of the backfield. The Saints are still putting up points with the best offenses in the league, making Kamara’s TD drought seem like nothing more than a puzzling one-year anomaly.
David Johnson
Positional average draft position: 7
Current positional ranking: 24
Ugly numbers to know: After totaling at least 12.5 fantasy points in five of his first six games, Johnson suffered an ankle injury in Week 7 and things haven’t been the same since with a lack of snaps and all of 17 total touches during that span. Johnson finally returned to double-digit fantasy scoring for the first time since Week 6 on Sunday, thanks to a receiving TD among his five total touches, but he’s long been benched or released in a number of leagues.
Outlook: Panic. Johnson will only be 28 later this month and should be in the prime of his career, but he has looked like anything but for most of this season. In the meantime, the fit with the Cards’ new offense just hasn’t seemed to be there. A change of scenery might be in the offing – how about a reunion with former coach Bruce Arians in RB-needy Tampa Bay? – but, in any case, look for him to fall to the middle rounds in drafts next summer and hope for some value.
Julio Jones
Positional average draft position: 3
Current positional ranking: 18
Numbers to know: Jones started strong with four TDs and two 100-yard receiving games in his first three contests, but he stunningly hasn’t appeared in the end zone in nine games since with only two more 100-yard outings to boot. So, since Week 4, Jones hasn’t accounted for any of the Falcons’ 25 TDs, including Sunday when an out-of-nowhere rookie wideout by the name of Olamide Zaccheaus outproduced Jones (66 yards on five catches) with one 93-yard scoring reception.
Outlook: Panic (at least when it comes to his automatic WR1 status). Jones has been such a dominant fantasy force in recent seasons, that it’s been tough to curtail the high-end WR1 expectations and projections throughout the industry this season. It’s mainly led, though, to fantasy frustration for Julio owners over the last three months, and we must start adjusting expectations and rankings downward, particularly with Jones turning 31 in February and the weekly nagging injuries seeming to constantly be lingering in the background.
Odell Beckham Jr.
Positional average draft position: 6
Current positional ranking: 32
Numbers to know: Sunday presented a favorable home matchup with the one-win Bengals, but OBJ managed only two catches for 39 scoreless yards on five targets – his 10th game (out of 13) with 8.2 fantasy points or fewer with only two TDs on the season.
Outlook: Yes, panic. We reached that stage a month or so ago, but there also were pre-game reports Sunday about impending sports-hernia surgery and OBJ asking to be traded, short of a full season in Cleveland, and that leaves his future very much up in the air. In reality, though, due to injuries and everything else that comes with OBJ, we haven’t seen a top-18 fantasy season out of him since 2016, and it’s fair to start wondering if Beckham’s best campaigns are already three years behind him and fading fast.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Positional average draft position: 7
Current positional ranking: 55
Numbers to know: Ready or not, JJSS was thrust into the team’s No. 1 wide receiver role in his second season, and then Ben Roethlisberger’s season-ending elbow injury in Week 2 only further compounded things. That’s help result in only three double-digit fantasy-point games in Smith-Schuster’s first 10 before a concussion and knee injury knocked him out in Week 11. He’s since missed the last three games, further dropping him into the depths of 2019’s disappointments.
Outlook: Patience. Almost instantly with Big Ben’s injury, the Steelers were forced to take on more of defensive persona out of necessity, and the team’s young QBs (Duck Hodges and Mason Rudolph) just aren’t ready to support a bona fide week-in and week-out WR1 – even if Smith-Schuster had remained healthy. Smith-Schuster remains a talent, but his immediate future looks to be more in the WR2 range as best of an exciting young wideout corps.
Brandin Cooks
Positional average draft position: 14
Current positional ranking: 69
Numbers to know: Sure there was a Week 8 concussion that wound up costing him two games after the team’s Week 9 bye, but Cooks had cleared 10 or more fantasy points in only one of seven contests prior to that. Infinitely more puzzling, Cooks has been even more of a non-factor in the Rams’ recent resurgence, with only eight total targets and four catches since returning in Week 12.
Outlook: Panic. Once arguably the lead dog among L.A.’s talented WR trio, Cooks has clearly fallen behind compatriots Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods, and now the Rams’ tight ends are suddenly way more involved in the passing attack as well as the shift has gone to more shorter and intermediate throws rather than deeper shots to Cooks. The Rams will be facing some salary-cap issues soon with all the big contracts they’ve doled out in recent seasons, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see Cooks with a new team – which would be his fourth in seven seasons – in 2020.
A.J. Green
Positional average draft position: 24
Current positional ranking: —
Numbers to know: Zero – as in zero games/snaps/targets – as Green hasn’t even played in as much as a preseason game following an ankle injury sustained early in training camp.
Outlook: (Real) panic. Green’s injury issues go even further back than this summer as a foot injury essentially sidelined him for the second half of the 2018 season. In total, he’s played all of 17 offensive snaps – with one 7-yard reception – in the Bengals’ last 21 games, dating back to late October 2018. He was supposed to miss only four or five contests this season, but Green hasn’t even been able to string together back-to-back practices and should’ve long since been placed on IR as Cincy’s miserable one-win season drones on. Looking ahead, Green will be 32 by the time next season rolls around, and it’s looking increasingly doubtful he ever will be able to consistently produce at his elite WR1 level when he does finally return.
O.J. Howard
Positional average draft position: 4
Current positional ranking: 32
Numbers to know: Howard had a middling 7.3 fantasy points with four catches for 73 yards Sunday, but that marked his second-best outing of the season with his yardage total hitting a season high.
Outlook: (Verging on) panic. As impressive as Howard’s abbreviated 10-game 2018 season was (34 catches for 565 yards and five TDs), he still has three more games missed to injury (eight) than he does double-digit fantasy-point outings (five) during that span. And the fact that he hasn’t found a way to be meaningfully involved in one of the league’s most fantasy-friendly aerial attacks this season is troubling.
Vance McDonald
Positional average draft position: 8
Current positional ranking: 31
Numbers to know: It would stand to reason that Roethlisberger’s injury and the Steelers’ shift to a shorter passing game would’ve played right into McDonald’s hands, but he’s only topped four catches twice and 50 receiving yards three times – and none have come since Week 6. And even with four receiving TDs, McDonald only has cracked double-digit fantasy points twice in 12 games.
Outlook: Panic. This is McDonald’s seventh season, and he’s only finished as a top-20 fantasy tight end once, and that came last year when he came in 12th. There are still occasional flashes and TDs, but perhaps a startable fantasy tight end tease is all McDonald is ever going to be.
EXTRA POINTS
- Fresh from the Go Figure Dept. is a sampling of a few notable quarterback fantasy-point totals from the opening weekend of the fantasy postseason in the majority of leagues: Mitchell Trubisky (36.5 points), Drew Lock (28.9) and Kyle Allen (27.1) all came out of Sunday as top-10 performers while Aaron Rodgers (15.3), Russell Wilson (15.1) and Josh Allen (12.2) were all 22nd or worse.
- The answer is Raheem Mostert. The question was what 49ers running back did you want to start in Week 14? The telling numbers: Mostert (40 offensive snaps, 12 touches, 109 total yards and two TDs for a total of 24.9 PPR points ), Matt Breida (12 snaps, seven touches, 58 total yards and no TDs for 6.8 PPR points) and Tevin Coleman (11 snaps, three touches, six total yards and no TDs for 0.6 fantasy points).
- We’ve discussed some TD droughts above, but two ended Sunday for a pair of wide receivers as Woods and the Chargers’ Mike Williams both hauled in long-overdue scoring passes. Woods entered the week with 98 targets without a TD catch while Williams was at 69 targets.
- Titans rookie J. Brown continues to impress, leading all wideouts Sunday with 28.6 fantasy points (33.6 PPR) on five receptions for a career-high 153 yards and two TDs in the 42-21 road rout of the reeling Raiders. One issue though: a full 60.4 percent of Brown’s 115 fantasy points on the season have come in three of his 13 games.
- Ad discussed above, the Rams continue to get their tight ends involved by using much more “12” personnel packages (one RB, 2 TEs) than they have in recent seasons. With Tyler Higbee’s6- and 26.7-point totals the last two weeks he and fellow TE Gerald Everett have now combined for five on the season. They had totaled only one between them the previous two full seasons.