One of the more noticeable and pleasant stories of 2019 for the Wisconsin Badgers is that Paul Chryst has adjusted and evolved with the times. Chryst has been more willing to go for it on fourth downs this year. He has been more willing to stress the need for his offense to keep the ball instead of playing field position. This is where smarter, better, more analytical football decisions are moving – slowly, yes, but surely – and Chryst has gotten aboard the train before the end of the decade.
When the Badgers face the Minnesota Golden Gophers, you can bet that Chryst will go for some fourth downs he wouldn’t have pursued in the past. This isn’t necessarily a comforting notion, but it does offer the promise of an exciting, volatile day in Minneapolis. A fourth-down play might be the most memorable play in Badgers-Gophers. We will see if that turns out to be the case, and we will also find out which team celebrates after one such play.
The big point to keep in mind on fourth-down decisions is that while most football fans and analysts focus on the decision itself, the equally (sometimes more) important component of coaching strategy is the play call attached to the decision. This is similar on 2-point conversions when coaches go for them in various debatable situations. Analysts will spend 10 minutes railing against the decision to go for two (or fourth down), when the play call was utter trash.
Yes, if Wisconsin gets off to a big start and maintains a healthy lead for most of the day (wouldn’t that be great!), there might not be a fourth down of considerable significance in this game. Yet, given how tough Minnesota has been at home – and in the second half of the 2019 season after an uneven September in which the Gophers plainly got lucky against below-average teams) – I doubt we will see a drama-free football game. Fourth downs are likely to matter.
So, when these critical junctures arrive, let’s see what Chryst and his offensive staff are able to show the Gophers. Will they save their very best plays? Will they react to Minnesota’s tendencies or have a “this is our play, try and stop us?” approach. Play-calling is done by feel. Chryst will need to feel this game as finely as any game he has coached at UW.
No pressure, Paul.