The Tampa Bay Lightning (12-8-2) visit the Washington Capitals (17-4-5) Friday at Capital One Arena for a 5 p.m. ET puck drop. We analyze the Lightning-Capitals sports betting odds and lines, while providing NHL betting tips and picks around this matchup.
Lightning at Capitals: Projected starting goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy vs. Braden Holtby
Vasilevskiy went 2-3-0 over his last five starts and has a 9-7-0 record through 16 starts. He has a .908 save percentage and a 2.90 goals against average.
Holtby is 3-1-1 over his last five starts. He is 12-2-4 on the season with a .909 SV% and 2.86 GAA, but both numbers have been trending in a positive direction following a shaky start to the season.
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Lightning at Capitals: Odds, picks and betting tips
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access them at USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated at 12:50 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Capitals 3, Lightning 2
Moneyline (ML)
The CAPITALS (-125) are the play at home, where they’re 7-2-4 on the season and coming off a 4-3 win over the Florida Panthers. The Lightning (+105) are 6-5-1 on the road and are coming off a 4-3 home loss to the St. Louis Blues.
The Capitals are third in the NHL with a plus-17 goal differential while the Lightning are plus-11. Both starting goalies have been underachievers thus far, but Holtby is in the better form of late and will backstop the Caps to a home win.
New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Capitals to win in regulation, overtime or a shootout returns a profit of $8.
Puck Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
The Lightning are just 9-13 against the spread overall and 4-8 on the road. The Capitals are 15-11 overall, but just 5-8 at home. Five of the Lightning’s eight losses on the season were decided by just single goals with two of those going to overtime.
Back the LIGHTNING (+1.5, -250) to stay within one goal in a loss or win outright. It’s not as profitable as choosing Tampa Bay to win outright, but the insurance of a close loss makes the $4 profit on a $10 bet worthwhile.
Over/Under (O/U)
Take the UNDER 6.5 (-121) on a high projection. The Lightning are 7-3 against the Over/Under across their last 10 games with the Capitals going 6-4 over the same span. The goalie battle will bring out the best in both of them and the early start will also have an effect on the goal output.
Esten’s NHL betting record: 86-78
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