For the first half of the 2019 NFL season, the Miami Dolphins were the overwhelming favorites to land the top pick in the 2020 NFL Draft according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). FPI is designed to score teams based on metrics and statistics and then simulate the remaining unplayed games on the schedule 10,000 times in order to determine the likelihood of outcomes.
At one point, the Dolphins were given an 80% chance to finish with the league’s worst record, given how poorly they were showing on the field.
Those days have come and gone, unfortunately. The current snapshot of the league’s NFL Draft order favors the Cincinnati Bengals to finish with the top spot — they’re currently given a 63.7% chance to finish with the top pick. That number is the best in football, although the Dolphins are still second best on the list. Miami is given a 17.3% chance of coming home with the top pick.
But the Dolphins are running out of time. Yes, the team still has a head to head contest against the Cincinnati Bengals this season, but Miami trails the Bengals by two games. Cincinnati will have to win against someone not named the Dolphins if the Dolphins can bounce back into the top spot. The opportunities are slim. The Bengals play the playoff hopeful Browns twice — and things seem to be clicking well for Cleveland, look for the Browns to sweep those two contests. Adding in the Dolphins’ game, Cincinnati has just two other opportunities to hypothetically win a game. One of them is a home game against the New England Patriots (Week 15). Don’t hold your breath.
That leaves just one game. This week’s contest against the New York Jets. If Miami’s hope of the top spot are going to survive to Week 16, it’s looking like now or never for another Bengals win.
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