Ohio State’s win vs. Penn State wasn’t good enough to take LSU’s No. 1 spot

The best we can hope for is LSU vs. Ohio State in the College Football Playoff.

Going into Ohio State’s top-10 matchup against Penn State on Saturday, there was talk of the Buckeyes reclaiming their No. 1 spot in the College Football Playoff rankings if they blew the Nittany Lions out.

Although the Buckeyes won, 28-17, some unexpected mistakes against its highest-ranked opponent to date suggests it should stay stay in the No. 2 spot behind LSU, assuming the Tigers wreck Arkansas, the only SEC team without a conference win, on Saturday night.

For the first time this season, Ohio State briefly looked beatable — even as Penn State also beat itself late in the game — in its smallest margin of victory this season. However, it did clinched the Big Ten East with the win and will have a shot at the conference title in a couple weeks.

Overall Saturday, the Buckeyes fumbled four times and lost three. Two lost fumbles in the third quarter led to Penn State scoring drives and allowed the Nittany Lions back into the game.

They entered Week 13 with 14 fumbles on the season, eight lost, for an average of 1.4 per game. After they jumped out to a 21-0 lead early in the third quarter, running back J.K. Dobbins and quarterback Justin Fields fumbled on back-to-back drives — and that was after Fields’ first-quarter fumble and turnover.

Now, Penn State’s defense is still one of the best in the country, and obviously, the Buckeyes were able to survive with an 11-point win. But they should need more than that to leap over LSU in the CFP rankings in Week 14.

Comparing the top-2 teams

The top-2 teams clearly have two of the most powerful and explosive offenses in the nation, and they’re led by Heisman Trophy candidates: LSU quarterback Joe Burrow and Ohio State’s Fields and Dobbins.

Going into Week 13, the Tigers and Buckeyes had similar offensive stats. LSU was second nationally in yards per game with 556.0 and third with 7.64 yards per play, while Ohio State was fourth at 541.7 and sixth with 7.26 yards per play. But Ohio State was No. 1 in scoring offense with 51.5 points per game and leads the country with 69 offensive touchdowns, while LSU was No. 2 with 47.8 points per game and third with 60 offensive touchdowns.

Defense is where the Buckeyes have the largest edge. Led by another Heisman candidate in defensive end Chase Young, Ohio State entered Week 13 at No. 1 in scoring defense (9.8 points per game), in yards per play (3.52) and in yards per game (216.4).

The Tigers’ defense isn’t at the level fans have come to expect and gave up an average of 5.39 yards per play ahead of their Week 13 game against Arkansas. They were also tied for No. 48 nationally with opponents putting up 367.8 yards per game and No. 44 with 23.8 points per game.

They crushed Ole Miss last week by three touchdowns, but they also gave up 37 points. Even against then-No. 3 Alabama earlier this month — LSU’s best win of the season so far — they had a 33-13 halftime lead and ended up winning, 46-41.

LSU’s record is slightly stronger and entered Week 13 ranked No. 1 with wins against three teams currently ranked by the CFP committee, and it should get credit for beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Ohio State’s record was ranked No. 2 ahead of this week — though that could change after Saturday — and it now also has wins against three teams in the CFP rankings.

The “eye test” helps Ohio State

The Buckeyes’ advantage to counter LSU’s schedule has been the so-called “eye test,” or which team simply looks better. They’re clearly the most balanced team in college football and, for the most part, have plowed through their opponents.

Though against a tougher schedule, LSU had a seven-point win over Texas, a three-point win over Auburn and then that five-point win against Alabama.

The fewest points Ohio State had previously won by was 24 twice (Florida Atlantic and Michigan State), and they never looked beatable at any point this season. Until the third quarter against Penn State.

And however brief that moment of weakness was, it seems like it might have been enough to keep Ohio State in the No. 2 spot, as LSU will surely destroy the worst team in the SEC on Saturday night.

Of course, the best we can hope for is that LSU and Ohio State will play each other in the College Football Playoff semifinals or national championship game and end this discussion in 60 minutes. But until then, the Tigers at No. 1 and Buckeyes at No. 2 sounds just right.

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