College football is down to just three undefeated teams going into Week 13: LSU, Ohio State and Clemson. Minnesota and Baylor dropped off the list last week with losses to Iowa and Oklahoma, respectively, so now we’re left with this trio.
Although we’ve looked at just the upcoming week’s opponents for unbeaten teams, it’s late enough in the season to expand that a little to the end of the regular season and the conference championship games. (We’ll also dig deeper into that in a few weeks.)
Will any of the three undefeated teams lose in Week 13? Probably not, especially considering one of them is off. And it’s looking increasingly likely that all three will enter bowl season with perfect records.
So here are our predictions for how the three remaining undefeated teams will play in Week 13 and beyond. They’re based on their upcoming opponents, how they’ve played so far, the College Football Playoff rankings and ESPN’s Football Power Index projections.
(All games are on Saturday unless otherwise noted.)
No. 1 LSU Tigers 10-0
Wins: Georgia Southern, Texas, Northwestern State, Vanderbilt, Utah State, Florida, Mississippi State, Auburn, Alabama, Ole Miss
Chance of winning out: 44.4 percent
Week 13 game: Arkansas (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Undefeated after Week 13: Yes
LSU closes out its regular season against Arkansas and then Texas A&M, two teams it shouldn’t have trouble beating. The Razorbacks have yet to win an SEC game this season, and they’re certainly not going to do it against the top-ranked team in the nation as 42.5-point underdogs. The Tigers have 98.7 percent chance to beat Arkansas and an 84.7 percent chance to take down the Aggies, both of which sound about right.
What is a little puzzling is that LSU still only has a 44 percent chance to of winning out, according to ESPN’s FPI. It’s a metric that includes conference championship games when they’re applicable, so for the Tigers, it goes beyond the next two weeks. Georgia clinched the SEC East last week with a win over Auburn, and if LSU can win this week, it will lock up the SEC West. Presumably, the Tigers’ relatively low chance to win out is because of this likely conference matchup, but it’s not exactly clear why.
LSU’s high-powered offense is led by Heisman Trophy front-runner Joe Burrow, who leads the nation with a 78.6 completion percentage and has 38 touchdowns compared with just six interceptions. As a whole, the Tigers’ offense is second in the country to Oklahoma with an average of 556.0 yards per game and second to Ohio State with an average of 47.8 points. Sure, Georgia’s defense is only giving up 267.2 yards per game (No. 6 nationally), and the Bulldogs have some excellent wins on their schedule. But all this is to say it seems like the Tigers should have a higher chance to win out at this point — at least slightly more than 50 percent, even if they are headed toward a game against the No. 4 team.
No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes 10-0
Wins: Florida Atlantic, Cincinnati, Indiana, Miami (Ohio), Nebraska, Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Maryland, Rutgers
Chance of winning out: 56.4 percent
Week 13 game: Penn State (Noon ET, FOX)
Undefeated after Week 12: Yes
The Buckeyes close out the regular season against No. 8 Penn State and No. 13 Michigan, two of the toughest teams on their schedule. However, nothing suggests they won’t plow over both teams like they’ve done against every other opponent so far this season. They’re 18.5-point favorites at home against the Nittany Lions with an 83.9 percent chance to win this weekend. They also have a 77.4 percent chance of beating Michigan on the road. And for the record, their chance of winning out seems awfully low too.
With the nation’s No. 1 defense (216.4 yards/game, 3.52 yards/play) and the No. 4 offense (541.7 yards/game, No. 6 with 7.26 yards/play), Ohio State is looking like the most balanced team in the country. And with quarterback Justin Fields, running back J.K. Dobbins and defensive end Chase Young — who returns to the field after a two-game suspension from the NCAA — the Buckeyes have three of the best and most explosive players in college football on their roster.
However, they might not be able to lose to either team — or eventually in the Big Ten championship game — and still make the College Football Playoff. But that doesn’t seem likely anyway with a team of this caliber — though they do have the most challenging remaining schedule of the the teams on this list.
No. 3 Clemson Tigers 11-0
Wins: Georgia Tech, Texas A&M, Syracuse, Charlotte, North Carolina, Florida State, Louisville, Boston College, Wofford, NC State, Wake Forest
Chance of winning out: 88.5 percent
Week 13 game: Bye
Undefeated after Week 13: Yes (duh)
Clemson is off in Week 13 before closing out the season against South Carolina, a 4-7 team that upset Georgia in October and lost to Appalachian State in November. So really, who knows what could happen here?
Following a rocky start to the season, the Tigers have found their groove and are absolutely destroying every opponent in their path, and they currently have a 92.6 percent chance to beat South Carolina. This could be a blowout — it will probably be a blowout — or the Gamecocks could flirt with pulling off another stunner. Either way, Clemson should still win the ACC without much difficulty.
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