The Dallas Cowboys struggled to defeat the 3-5-1 Detroit Lions in Week 11, but the victory improved their record to 6-4 to maintain first place in the NFC ahead of the 5-5 Philadelphia Eagles.
This is one of the few games this year that was actually a close game for all four quarters. The play-calling of Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore does not bear a striking resemblance to any of the previous games he has called. One has to be careful not to read too much into one game, but it is hard to escape the conclusion that the play-calling against the Lions might be the game in which Moore finally found his own version of a “balanced offense”.
It is quite possible Moore’s pass-heavy attack against Detroit was simply a reaction to defense stacking the line to stop running back Ezekiel Elliot; however, it is also possible Moore has accepted the reality that the Cowboys are at their best when Dak Prescott has the ball in his hands.
Could Moore finally be moving past the long and dearly held belief that the Cowboys offense needs, “to get Zeke going” to be effective?
You can read the stats and analysis from previous games here.
The Context
Dallas ran 69 offensive plays against the Lions. Prescott took 22 snaps from under center and 47 in the shotgun. This kind of disparity between snaps under center versus the shotgun is typical of the games the Cowboys have lost.
The only game Dallas won in which Prescott operated from the shotgun so frequently was against the Giants in Week 9 (26 from under center and 43 in shotgun).
In the first four victories, Dallas was balanced in terms of where Prescott lined up: 32-34 against the Giants, 32-36 in Washington, 32-39 versus the Dolphins, and 34-36 against the Eagles.
But the three games they lost saw a major shift to the shotgun: 18-39 in New Orleans, 21-52 against the Packers, 26-56 versus the Jets, and 20-51 against Minnesota.
The Saints game was a bit of an anomaly because they were never behind more than six points but still went heavy on the shotgun (18 snaps under center and 39 from shotgun) and they passed far more often then they attempted to run.
Raw Data from Week 11
Where these numbers differ from the official stat line, it is because offensive plays that were negated for penalties were intentionally included.
In Week 11 against the Detroit Lions, Moore called 18 runs, 35 passing plays, 16 play-action passes, and one rushing attempt off play-action.
First-half snaps under center
Dallas ran 40 plays in the first half. Prescott was under center for 9 snaps and in the shotgun for 31.
Of those 9 snaps from under center:
- six were rushes
- three were play-action passes
First-half shotgun snaps
Of the 31 shotgun snaps:
- six were rushes
- 20 were passes
- four were play-action passes
- one was a play-action run
Dallas was not balanced in the first half in terms of formation (nine snaps from under center and 31 in shotgun) or the run/pass distribution, for they passed 67.5% of the time (12 runs, 20 passes, seven play-action passes and one play-action run).
A few more things stand out.
First, like the week before against the Vikings, Moore is back to using play-action on a regular basis. A full 20% of the first-half plays were based on play-action, and 26% of the passes came off play-action.
Second, unlike some of the previous games, Dallas only attempted one play-action run: it was a designed run for Prescott. The Cowboys seem to have gotten away from calling running plays for Prescott in recent weeks. It is a bit surprising that no one has asked Moore or head coach Jason Garrett to explain this change.
Third, the Cowboys scored 21 points in the second quarter. They only ran the ball from under center twice in the second quarter.
Snaps from the under center in the second half
Dallas ran 29 plays in the second half. Prescott was under center for 13 snaps and in the shotgun for 16.
Of the 13 snaps that Prescott took under center:
- six were runs
- seven were play-action passes
Second-half shotgun snaps
Of the 16 plays from the shotgun:
- 14 were pass attempts
- two were play-action passes
The Cowboys’ offense was much more balanced in the second half in terms of formation (13 snaps from under center and 16 from the shotgun), but they were not very balanced in terms of the run/pass distribution (six runs, 14 passes, and nine play-action passes). Despite having success with it in previous games, Moore called no rushing attempts off play-action.
It is noteworthy that Dallas did not run the ball from the shotgun at all in the second half.
Totals for game
Dallas ran 69 plays on offense.
Moore called 19 rushing plays:
- 12 from under center
- six from from the shotgun
- one of play-action from the shotgun
Moore called 50 passes:
- ten off play-action from under center
- 34 from the shotgun
- six passes off play-action from the shotgun
Conclusions
The things that sticks out most is the 16 play-action passes. Despite Prescott being crowned “Captain Play-Action” after the first three games this year, Moore really got away from calling play-action passes in Weeks 4-7.
In the last two weeks, Prescott has attempted more passes off play-action (16) in both games than in any of the previous games. The Cowboys attempted 50 passes; 32% of those passes came off pay-action. Almost a quarter (24.6%) of all the Cowboys plays involved some kind of play-action.
I have long held the conviction that being balanced is a prerequisite to offensive success in the NFL. Being balanced no longer means striving to run the ball 50% of the time.
It seems as though Moore may be in the process of redefining what it means to be a “balanced offense”.
I have argued that balance for the Cowboys should be predicated on three things: the traditional run/pass ration (preferably closer to 60% passing than 70%), the frequency with which they run the ball when Prescott is under center (preferably less than 75% compared to the more than 80% of Linehan) and the regularity with which they pass when Prescott is in the shotgun (preferably less than 75% compared to the more than 80% of Linehan).
Against Detroit, Moore called for a pass attempt on 72.4% of their plays.
Moore did keep the run/pass ratio balanced when Prescott was under center; he called running plays on just 54.5% of those plays (12 runs on 22 snaps), which is a drastic improvement from former offensive coordinator Scott Linehan who called runs on more than 80% of the under-center snaps.
However, Moore was Linehan-esque when calling passing plays from the shotgun; he called for a pass attempt on 40 of the 47 shotgun snaps. That is 85%, which is very similar to Linehan’s offense.
If Moore can string together a few victories over winning teams with this offensive approach to run/pass distribution and throwing so much from the shotgun, I look forward to admitting that my notions of a balanced being integral to offensive success are antiquated.
Miscellaneous Observations
- When was last time that Cowboys’ fans were so disappointed and worried after a win? Giving up 27 points to the Lions without their starting quarterback is troubling.
- Even more troubling is the success Detroit had running the ball with a player who wasn’t good enough to even make a game day roster until the Lions squad suffered multiple injuries.
- The inability to stop the run could very well be the Dallas Cowboys Achilles’ heel.
- Since 2018, Dallas is 9-1 against teams in the NFC East and just 7-9 against the rest of the NFL. Six of those victories came against teams with losing records (Lions were 6-10, Jaguars were 5-11, Falcons were 7-9, Buccaneers were 5-11, Dolphins are 2-7, and now the Lions who were 3-5-1). Other than the Eagles, their only victories against teams with winning records were the Saints last year and the Seahawks in the playoffs.
- The Lions were 6 of 13 on third-down conversions (46%). Opposing offenses are converting third downs just 32.5% of the time against the Cowboys defense (40-123). Dallas owns the third best third-down defense in the league (after New England and San Francisco).
- Dallas was an impressive 8-14 on their own third-down attempts (57%). They are now 63-121 on the season (52%). That makes them the best in the NFL at converting third downs.
- Offensive yards per game is a misleading statistic. However, the stats of the Dallas offense continue to look elite. They are second, after Baltimore, in yards per drive (42.21). They are tied for second with Kansas City, also behind the Ravens, in points per drive (2.65). They are second, again behind Lamar Jackson’s team, in touchdowns per drive (.315).
- Dallas was 3-5 in the red zone against the Lions. Their red zone efficiency for the year is 58.33, which puts them 17th in the NFL, but still much better than they were doing under Linehan.
The Cowboys have their biggest test of the season next week when they travel to New England to face the Patriots.
You can follow on Twitter @CJosephWright.
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