Every NFL fan base has hope at this time of year, and there’s a good reason for that: Year-to-year turnarounds are a common occurrence. It seems like every year, at least one team makes the jump from the cellar to the top of its division. While we didn’t get a worst-to-first turnaround in 2019, we did see the 49ers leapfrog the Rams and Seahawks in the NFC West and make a run to the Super Bowl.
It wasn’t a total surprise that the 49ers were a good football team in 2019. They were getting plenty of attention as playoff sleepers last offseason. There are a handful of teams who are getting similar love this offseason. The Broncos, for instance, have received so much love that their odds of making the playoffs have jumped to +162. At this point, I don’t know if it’s fair to even consider them sleepers.
The five teams I’ve picked out for this list have much shorter odds to missout on postseason play. In order to narrow down the field of potential playoff sleepers, I focused on teams whose odds to make it are longer than +200. That gave me a group of 11 legitimate sleepers: Arizona, Washington, Jacksonville, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, Cincinnati, Carolina, Atlanta and both New York teams.
Here are the five that I think are the most enticing bets to make the postseason…
1. Arizona Cardinals (Odds to make playoffs: +260)
Their odds don’t necessarily reflect it, but the Cardinals, much like Denver, are getting plenty of offseason love. The expected second-year leap from Kyler Murray is the big reason why people are jumping on Arizona’s bandwagon, and it’s also why I have them on this list.
A second-year leap for Murray would go a long way in propelling the offense, which finished 13th in offensive DVOA in 2019, per Football Outsiders. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins, who gives the Cardinals an answer against man coverage that they just didn’t have last year, should help accelerate his development and improve his numbers in the red zone. That was an issue during Murray’s rookie campaign, as Sports Info Solution’s Bryce Rossler points out.
The defense doesn’t look significantly better on paper, but if some of the younger players in the secondary — I’m looking at you Byron Murphy — take a step forward and we get bounce-back seasons from Patrick Peterson and Robert Alford, it can be okay. And ‘okay’ might be good enough. Playing in a division with coaches hellbent on establishing the run could naturally boost the defense.
While the defense remains a significant question mark, the slate of quarterbacks it will face is relatively easy, outside of two games against Russel Wilson, one against Dak Prescott and another against Carson Wentz. Jimmy Garoppolo and Jared Goff are really the only other proven starters on the schedule.
2. Detroit Lions (Odds to make playoffs: +250)
All of the underlying metrics suggest the Lions were a better team in 2019 than their record implies — they just had rotten luck in what FiveThirtyEight would consider “coin flip games,” finishing 1-5-1. On top of that, they lost Matthew Stafford, who was on pace for a career year under first-year offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, for about half the season.
The big question is whether or not the defense will take off in Matt Patricia’s third year. The problem through his first two years has been the pass rush, and there isn’t an obvious reason to think it’s been improved over the offseason. Detroit drafted Julian Okwara out of Notre Dame but made no other significant additions to the edge rusher group. Maybe bringing in Jamie Collins and Danny Shelton will help Patricia design more effective pressures. If not, it will be another long season for Detroit’s cornerbacks, who are asked to play a ton of man coverage.
The secondary lost its best player in Darius Slay but replaced him with the draft’s best corner in Jeff Okudah and then signed veterans Desmond Trufant and Duron Harmon. Throw in slot stud Justin Coleman and the Lions should have a good, smart secondary.
So what’s preventing me from taking the plunge on the Lions as a viable playoff sleeper? That schedule. The NFC North is solid across the board and playing both South divisions will make Detroit’s slate even tougher. There are a lot of good QBs on the docket.
3. Atlanta Falcons (Odds to make playoffs: +210)
My confidence in the Falcons is based entirely on the offensive personnel overcoming offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter and being fantastic once again. Atlanta dropped back to 15th in offensive DVOA last season and wasn’t much better than the maligned defense, which finished 20th after a strong finish to the season.
There’s hope that the defense will carry over the momentum it built in the second half after Raheem Morris took over, but I just don’t see enough talent on the defense to share in that hope. Dante Fowler Jr. should improve the pass rush — hell, you might be an upgrade over Vic Beasley — and Grady Jarrett is still here to destroy interior offensive lines. The back seven looks barren, though, and first-round pick A.J. Terrell might be a project at corner.
But as long as Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are in Atlanta, the offense has a chance to be great. And as long as the offense has a chance to be great, the Falcons have a shot at making a playoff run. And who knows? Maybe the pair of 40-something quarterbacks leading the two favorites in the NFC South fall off a cliff and make the path to the postseason much easier to navigate.
4. Las Vegas Raiders (Odds to make playoffs: +240)
The Raiders are due for some regression (and not the good kind) after outperforming their Pythagorean win total by two full games in 2019, but the additions to the roster could be enough to offset it.
Slowly but surely, the defense has gotten better … in theory. But when you’re picking playoff sleepers you have to project improvements and the Raiders have a cast of young defenders who could very well make the leap in 2020. Defensive linemen Maxx Crosby and Maurice Hurst have established themselves as good players. As have the two free-agent additions at linebacker, Corey Littleton and Nick Kwiatkowski. Now if guys like DE Clelin Ferrell, S Jonathan Abraham (who missed most of his rookie season with an injury), CB Trayveon Mullen and 2020 first-round CB Damon Arnette can live up to their pre-draft billing, Las Vegas may have a quality defense.
The offense has already reached that level, ranking ninth in offensive DVOA and seventh in passing last season. Say what you want about Jon Gruden’s roster management, but he’s coached the hell out of the offense and now has some more tools at the receiver position. Derek Carr is running out of excuses.
The schedule is daunting, though. The AFC West projects to be one of the tougher divisions in the NFL and the NFC South will present at least three more challenges for this young team. It is a good year to draw the AFC East but Las Vegas (god, that’s weird to type) has no margin for error in those winnable games.
5. Miami Dolphins (Odds to miss playoffs: +500)
I had to put at least one extra bold pick on this list and the Dolphins are it.
I’m still in shock that last year’s team won five games — even if it did require some unsustainable luck in close games — and that’s a testament to Brian Flores. Now that he has some talent to work with on defense — Byron Jones and Kyle Van Noy were the big acquisitions — he should be able to fully implement his Belichickian scheme.
Even if Tua Tagovailoa isn’t ready to start from Day 1, Ryan Fitzpatrick is a fine place holder and he has a sneaky good stable of targets to throw to now. You know about Devante Parker but Mike Gesicki and Preston Williams have breakout potential. I don’t know how I feel about Chan Gailey running an offense in 2020 but the pieces are there for a competent offense — if a suspect offensive line doesn’t tank the entire operation, that is.
The Dolphins are still at least a year away from being a serious playoff contender, but playing in what could be a weak division could accelerate their timeline. The Patriots could be bad. The Bills are due for some regression. The Jets are the Jets. With a last-place schedule, Miami has an added advantage in what could be a surprisingly competitive division race.
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