3. Buffalo at Kansas City
HIGHEST SCORING TEAM: Buccaneers +375, Bills +325, Packers +200, Chiefs +185
PICK: Chiefs +185
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
It’s the same drill there was for the Lowest Scoring Team Pick, but not really.
If you like any one of these teams, go for it. The beauty here is the value with every selection, and you’re really going with a 50/50 shot – at least, in insane investment theory – if you think you have your winners picked out.
On this, the value is Tampa Bay. It put up 38 against Green Bay the first time, it’s going to be an interesting offensive fight, but the conditions are going to be a wee bit harrier than they will be for the AFC Championship.
While the call was for the Packers +400 for the lowest scoring team on just a straight value guess, here you’re going with the value on probability.
Assume the home teams that received an extra week off are more likely to win, and assume the NFC Championship could be a bit lower scoring considering Tampa Bay has the No. 1 run defense in football and Green Bay hasn’t allowed more than 18 points in any of the last four games.
So if you’re sort of believe that the NFC will be a wee bit more defensive, then assume the winner of the AFC will the highest scoring team among the four.
Basically, you’re getting +185 worth of value that Kansas City will outscore Green Bay, Tampa Bay, and of course, Buffalo.