4. Cincinnati at East Carolina
LINE Cincinnati -14
ATS PICK East Carolina
And fair warning, I’m probably going with Houston against the spread in the American Athletic Conference championship, too, no matter how this plays out.
Last week I was all in that SMU just wasn’t very good at college football, which was part of the reason why one of the big picks was Cincinnati covering the 11. That was never going to be the problem for the Bearcats.
Houston could be a problem, and dealing with East Carolina at home could be a big problem.
The Pirates are on a nice four game winning streak, they lost just one home game so far – a 20-17 fight with South Carolina – and they’ve got a veteran quarterback in Holton Ahlers who only seems like he was once Jeff Blake’s backup.
Ahlers is red hot – over 700 passing yards over the last two games – the team is playing with house money with bowl eligibility already locked in, and it just might have the right style to screw things up.
It controls the tempo and the clock, it’s not bad at taking the ball away, and it’s an efficient team that’s been able to hold its own in tight games.
I continue to waver on whether or not to go with East Carolina outright, and the 14 seems a tad much even if you do like the Bearcats.
The Pirates haven’t lost by more than 14 all year.
– CFN Week 12 Experts Picks: NFL