One year ago Saturday the 49ers pulled the trigger on a monster trade with the Dolphins to move up to No. 3 overall in the 2021 draft where they selected North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance.
In the deal they sent their 2021, 2022 and 2023 first-round picks, along with a 2022 compensatory third-round selection (No. 102 overall). The ripple effects from the deal will continue for years depending on how the 49ers fare and what happens with those picks they traded.
One year removed from the trade though we’re no closer to knowing whether the deal was a good one for San Francisco. Quarterback play is so important in the NFL that virtually no cost is too high to find an elite, franchise signal caller. Three first-round picks and a third-round pick is a heavy investment, but it’s well worth the price if the result is a QB that has a team in contention every year.
The problem in evaluating this trade for the 49ers is the question mark still lingers over Lance. He started two games in 2021 with mixed results. There were flashes of brilliance mixed in with some head-scratching miscues. Discerning anything about Lance’s future, positive or negative, from those two games is impossible.
That all figures to change in 2022. The 49ers had a plan when they selected the inexperienced, uber-talented, FCS star. They wanted to sit him Year 1, then start him in Year 2 while loosely following the script the Chiefs wrote in 2017 with Patrick Mahomes and Alex Smith. All signs point to them continuing down that path with Lance taking over as the starter this season.
Once Lance gets real reps as the QB1 and a handful of starts under his belt, the evaluation on the 49ers’ blockbuster trade on March 26, 2021 can begin. Until then it’s floating in purgatory and the anniversary of the trade is notable as a turning point. We’re just not sure yet whether that turning point leads to a Super Bowl or a catastrophic letdown.
Happy anniversary!