The Raiders made a mid-week quarterback change that caused some havoc on the point spread in their game against the 49ers.
San Francisco, vying for the No. 2 seed in the NFL playoffs, was already favored by six points to start the week. It made sense with the Raiders virtually eliminated from the postseason and struggling offensively going into a game against the league’s best defense.
Then Las Vegas announced the benching of quarterback Derek Carr, and the elevation of Jarrett Stidham to the starting role. That caused the line to quickly skyrockets and the 49ers are now favored by 9.5 points according to BetMGM.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see that line move even further toward San Francisco.
There’s of course the Stidham factor. He’s making his first NFL start and in 11 career games he’s posted a paltry 52.5 completion rate with two touchdowns and four interceptions. A larger sample size should help his numbers some, but it stands to reason he’ll struggle badly against a stingy 49ers defense that ranks No. 1 in points allowed, yards allowed, and Football Outsiders’ Defensive DVOA.
The other reason this line could trend further toward the 49ers though is whatever it is the Raiders are doing defensively. They’re 25th in yards allowed, 28th in points allowed, and they’re No. 31 in Defensive DVOA.
If the 49ers execute well and avoid major mistakes, they should roll and cover the 9.5 points with relative ease.
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