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When the 49ers on Monday signed Arik Armstead to a long-term deal and traded DeForest Buckner to the Colts, it was not a choice between two defensive lineman. It was a choice to prioritize the long-term over the short-term.
San Francisco went into the offseason knowing they’d face a tough dilemma with the salary cap. They had just over $10 million in cap space to work with, Armstead set to hit free agency and long-term extensions looming for Buckner and All-Pro tight end George Kittle.
Their decision to lock up Armstead while trading Buckner kept the franchise from sticking themselves between a rock and a hard place. A couple things stand out as to why this move makes sense for San Francisco long term.
First is the financial aspect. Signing Armstead to a five-year, $85 million deal puts him at $17 million annually, roughly $4 million less annually than Buckner, whose deal is expected to reach $21 million per year. Structure and guaranteed money will play a key role in just how much the 49ers actually saved cap-wise down the road.
Then there’s the compensation they received in the trade. Letting Armstead walk in free agency would’ve likely netted the 49ers a mid-round compensatory pick in 2021. Giving him a franchise tag trading him would’ve likely netted no better than a 2021 second-round pick. San Francisco gave up a 2020 second-round selection for Dee Ford after the Chiefs franchise tagged him in the 2019 offseason.
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Another solution would’ve been to simply kick the can down the road. The 49ers could’ve signed Armstead to his deal, forced Buckner to play on his fifth-year option, and then try again next offseason. That would’ve given that iteration of the defensive line one more year to make a Super Bowl run. Conversely, the 49ers were probably never going to pay Armstead the deal he was seeking, and losing him in free agency after next season would’ve meant a mid-round compensatory pick that didn’t pay off until the 2022 draft.
By trading Armstead in the final year of his rookie contract, the 49ers instead landed a 2020 first-round pick for the interior lineman who was seeking a contract near the top of the market. That pick will also convey this year when San Francisco has no draft capital in Rounds 2, 3 and 4, so an additional first-round pick gives them added flexibility to move around the board on draft day.
The 49ers didn’t choose between two defensive lineman. They chose between one more year with this defensive line, and better long-term flexibility.
Armstead is still an excellent player whose ability to play on the edge and inside gives him a little more positional value than Buckner, although Buckner is the more singularly dominant player. Having an edge player who can also kick inside at $17 million per year instead of an interior lineman at $21 million per year is the way most NFL teams would prefer to construct their roster.
In this case though, the 49ers got that edge player, along with a 2020 first-round pick and added salary cap flexibility. Had they let Armstead walk and signed Buckner, they’d have an interior defensive lineman, a 2021 comp pick somewhere in the third or fourth round, and less financial flexibility in a time where cap space is at a premium.
Trading Buckner was not a no-brainer decision, but in the long run this is better for the 49ers if they play their cards right. They’re a team aiming to build a contender for the next several years, and clearing cap space, adding draft picks and retaining good players like Armstead are crucial components to doing so.
This was the first really tough call for general manager John Lynch and the 49ers’ front office, but moves like trading Pro Bowlers come with the territory of building a Super Bowl caliber roster. If things go right for San Francisco this offseason, it won’t be the last time they have difficult choices to make with their best players.
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