Market factors matter
Television distribution deals could be pushing the owners to rush the CBA. Players may want to take that into account. This could be the strongest negotiating position the league has with its distribution partners.
Ratings could drop for any number of reasons. There could be an increase in cord-cutters who use over the top antennas. It’s tougher to track those viewers than it is to track people using traditional cable. The NFL could see a ratings dip because it’s an election year. It’s happened before. Other factors could contribute to distribution partners wanting to hoard cash. No one knows what’s going to happen. There’s no way the league can pitch a level of certainty right now, but they are in a better position than they could be. We know what’s happening now.
Before anyone says that the NFL could be even more popular next year, sure that could happen, but imagine this scenario. Imagine if the NBA waited to negotiate its television deals and the Hong Kong protest issue came up during that negotiation. No one knows what market factors will change things and the NFL is in a position to use leverage now that may not be there in the future.