TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota, plays host to the 2020 3M Open beginning with the opening round on Thursday morning.
Rising star Matthew Wolff looks to defend his 2019 victory against the weakest field golf fans have seen since the PGA Tour returned to play following a break due to the coronavirus pandemic.
As a result, there’s plenty of betting value this week beyond the top names of Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka – who’s dealing with a recurring knee issue – Tony Finau and Tommy Fleetwood. Below, we look at the best prop bets for the 3M Open, including matchups, placings and first-round leader picks.
3M Open: Odds, predictions, best bets | Fantasy golf power rankings
Matchup bets
Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 4:15 p.m. ET.
Dustin Johnson (-134) vs. Brooks Koepka
Johnson and Koepka are the first and fourth betting favorites at +1000 and +1600, respectively. They’re the class of a weaker field, but there’s no value in betting them outright in what’s likely their final preparations for the PGA Championship.
Johnson missed the cut last week at plus-16 after opening 80-80 in the tough conditions at Muirfield Village Golf Club. He’ll bounce back on a much easier course following his weekend off.
Tony Finau (-125) vs. Tommy Fleetwood
Finau collapsed last week at the Memorial Tournament as Jon Rahm went on to win by three strokes over Ryan Palmer and Finau finished eighth. Finau will recover in easier scoring conditions and against a weaker field as Fleetwood makes his first appearance since The Players Championship was canceled.
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Placing bets
Top 5: Ryan Armour (+1600)
Armour finished T-6 at the Travelers Championship and T-4 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic before a missed cut at the Workday Charity Open. He finished at minus-15 and minus-16 in his two top results and should have little trouble lighting up TPC Twin Cities.
Top 10: Bernd Wiesberger (+850)
The golf betting community missed on Wiesberger last week, as he missed the cut at plus-7. Typically playing only majors and World Golf Championship events while dominating the European Tour, the 3M Open will feature one of the easiest courses and weakest fields of any PGA Tour event he has played.
Top British/Irish: Tommy Fleetwood (+120)
Fleetwood doesn’t hold much value at +1500 to win the first tournament he has played in four months. He is +100 to be the top English player, but his odds rise with only Russell Knox (+900) and Seamus Power (+1600) being added as competition.
Top player from the rest of the world: Emiliano Grillo (+1400)
Grillo is priced sixth in this group led by South African Erik Van Rooyen at +600. Grillo missed the cut last week while losing 2.46 strokes per round putting, but he gained 0.88 strokes off-the-tee. The latter is the much more important statistic at TPC Twin Cities, and he’ll be able to contend without needing to worry as much about the flat stick.
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First-round leader bet
Derek Ernst (+17500)
Ernst, a former PGA Tour winner, returns to a PGA Tour event for the first time since a T-52 finish at the Puerto Rico Open in February. He has dominated the Korn Ferry Tour of late with three straight finishes of T-12 or better and looks to carry his top form to the next level.
Lucas Glover (+4500)
Glover finished T-7 last year at minus-16 after firing a Sunday round of 62. His T-38 finish last week was his worst result in five events since returning to play, as he has been one of the most consistent in the strong fields. He’s ready to break through against softer competition.
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