Oddsmakers were completely stunned by the trade that sent Damian Lillard from the Portland Trail Blazers to the Milwaukee Bucks.
NBA players were comparably surprised by the blockbuster transaction. But the Bucks got a deal done and suddenly look like the favorites to win the Eastern Conference with their new and improved starting lineup. Their odds of winning the title skyrocketed after landing Lillard.
While many long assumed that Lillard was long on his way to Miami, the Bucks were hiding in plain sight. Their odds (+3000) suggested an implied probability of 3.23 percent, which was just the 10th-best among all teams in the league.
But for several reasons, we probably should have seen this coming a lot more clearly than we did.