The clock is ticking for the 2024 NFL draft. The event is just three weeks away and teams are already making moves to position themselves before the Chicago Bears go on the clock, where they’re widely expected to select USC quarterback Caleb Williams. But what happens next? The real intrigue in this year’s draft starts with the second pick. And the next one. And the one after that. Eventually the New Orleans Saints will be up, and more picks will follow.
So this week we’re exploring some trade scenarios that would leave some fanbases feeling lucky and others feeling, well, betrayed (or at least heartbroken). Here’s how we see the first 32 picks playing out if the Minnesota Vikings sacrifice Justin Jefferson to go get their quarterback:
No doubt here. Caleb Williams is all but confirmed to be the first pick, even if the gap between him and other quarterbacks in this draft class isn’t as wide as you’d think. He’s turning pro with a lot left to prove, but Chicago has built what looks like a strong supporting cast for the next No. 1 pick.
Drake Maye is the total package: he’s more creative than J.J. McCarthy and has a stature closer to the NFL archetype than Jayden Daniels, and he should be the second overall pick. The Commanders already cleared the way for him by trading Sam Howell, who started ahead of Maye at UNC. The challenge is going to be improving Maye’s supporting cast. Washington should hear trade offers for the second pick, but it’s unlikely anyone makes a move down worthwhile.
Here’s some controversy with J.J. McCarthy going ahead of Jayden Daniels. We can argue about who’s more pro-ready, but the difference in production is enough for an argument: McCarthy hardly lit up the box score in college while Daniels did enough to win the Heisman Trophy. But Daniels has too many red flags for the Patriots to ignore (which we’ll get to soon), so it’s McCarthy being seen as the safer pick.
Jayden Daniels doesn’t slide far, and it’s the Vikings moving up for him — but it cost them a lot to outbid competitors like the Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos. In addition to both of their picks in the first round this year, Minnesota trades superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson to the Arizona Cardinals. The move saves them significant salary cap resources that would have been going to his landmark extension and avoids giving up any more future draft picks. But Daniels suddenly has a lot less to work with. Those red flags we mentioned? Between his poor performance with a solid supporting cast at Arizona State, his age, and his slight frame there are plenty of teams second-guessing what they saw on tape at LSU last year.
The Chargers think awful hard about trading down here, but interest dries up quickly once the top four quarterbacks are off the board. So they address a major need with possibly the best player in the draft class. Marvin Harrison Jr. opted out pre-draft testing to stand on his college game tape, which is so much more impressive than anyone else that he’ll still be picked top-five. There are a ton of targets to go around after the Chargers emptied their receiving corps.
Malik Nabers won’t face much competition for targets in the Giants’ talent-poor receiving room. Depending on who you ask, he might be the best receiver prospect in this draft class, and his combination of college production and athletic testing would help back that up. The Giants have a major need at receiver and Nabers immediately addresses it. This is a no-nonsense pick.
Tired of this yet? Joe Alt makes so much sense for the Titans that it’s sillier to predict another player in this spot. They fielded possibly the worst offensive line in the league last year but otherwise have made some smart pickups this offseason. Alt wouldn’t cure all that ails them, but drafting him would do a lot to help Tennessee.
There’s a consensus starting to build here. The Falcons need to juice up their pass rush and Dallas Turner is one of the best athletes in this draft class. Atlanta could go in a different direction but the expectation is for Turner to be the first defender picked in this year’s draft.
The Bears could get more help for Caleb Williams in a couple of different ways, but the smart bet might be stand put and draft the best available wideout. It shouldn’t take long for Rome Odunze to assert himself as the best player in an already-respectable receiving corp. There’s wisdom in stacking strength on strength like this in case someone falls off or doesn’t meet expectations (which is what the Bears just experienced firsthand in a bad trade for Chase Claypool).
The Jets did a great job addressing their offensive line in free agency, so it could make sense to get more firepower for Robert Saleh’s defense at this pick. But so long as Aaron Rodgers has his hooks in the front office he’ll be petitioning for more help, and with the top wideouts off the board it’s Brock Bowers going to New York. The Jets got solid production out of Tyler Conklin last year (61 catches for 621 yards) but Bowers can do so much more.
Remember, the Cardinals got Justin Jefferson in this trade back, so receiver isn’t as much a priority for them now. So it’s time to address the offensive line, and the best blocker after Joe Alt might play on the other side of the line. Taliese Fuaga is a pro-ready right tackle who nailed his athletic testing and pre-draft process with some standout moments at the Senior Bowl. It’s a whole new offense in Arizona with Fuaga and Jonah Williams anchoring the line for Kyler Murray while Jefferson runs downfield.
It’s beginning to sound like Marshon Lattimore will be staying in New Orleans, so cornerback-needy teams like the Jaguars may have to get aggressive on draft day. And it shouldn’t be hard to cut a deal with the Broncos who desperately need draft picks to fulfill Sean Payton’s vision for the team. Jacksonville gets this year’s best corner, Payton gets more draft capital, and Quinyon Mitchell lands in a great place to make a name for himself.
The Raiders are in a bad spot after failing to trade into the top-four in search of a quarterback, so they’ll work on replenishing the roster and setting their next passer up for success (whoever it turns out to be). That means doing a better job bookending the offensive line. They lost their starting right tackle in free agency, so JC Latham can immediately make an impact for them without needing to learn a new position.
What to do? The best pass rushers and wideouts and left tackles are all available. A team aware of its meager draft capital and multitude of needs would trade down to get more picks and let the board come to them. But the Saints are always going to move boldly with Mickey Loomis steering the ship, and this time he’s staying put and drafting an offensive lineman. If Trevor Penning totally bombs at left tackle, Troy Fautanu can replace him. If there’s any hope Penning can better develop under the new offensive coaching staff, Fautanu can bump James Hurst out of the starting lineup and take over at left guard instead. His presence allows the team to play its five best offensive linemen. But what’s the plan at right tackle?
It shouldn’t shock anyone if Terrion Arnold is picked sooner than this; it’s still uncertain whether teams rank Quinyon Mitchell ahead of him as the draft’s best cornerback. Either way, Arnold is a great cover corner with all the tools teams look for in future pros. He’ll quickly address a top need for the Colts and help their pass defense keep pace with some dangerous receiving corps in the AFC South. Someone has to cover Stefon Diggs when the Houston Texans come to town.
Seattle’s offensive line could use some attention, but there are so many options in this year’s draft they can afford to wait. In steps Byron Murphy as arguably the best defensive tackle available. He offers similar skills to the dynamic linemen that first-year head coach Mike Macdonald worked with on the Baltimore Ravens last season.
Sean Payton always built his Saints teams through the trenches, and he’ll take a similar approach by picking Jared Verse to spearhead his pass rush. Quarterback is the bigger need but there isn’t a passer worth taking in the middle of the first round. The pressures of getting that pick right under center may force Payton’s hand.
The Bengals addressed their offensive line in free agency (by signing Trent Brown) and added a stout defensive tackle in Sheldon Rankins, who could be a great mentor for Johnny Newton. They’re both similarly undersized but explosive athletes who won in similar ways in college by beating opposing blockers off the snap.
The Rams need more talent on their defense after Aaron Donald finally hung up his cleats, and Latu brings that off the edge. There are medical concerns with him but he’s turned in two very impressive seasons at UCLA and isn’t slowing down. For a team that likes to take risks, he’s a good pick.
Olu Fashanu’s slide finally stops, and he gets to stay in Pennsylvania. Whether they keep him at left tackle (which they should) or move him inside to guard (which is a possibility), the Steelers get a top-flight offensive lineman who is just as athletic as anyone in this draft class. He should go higher than this but the wealth of options and some nitpicking on his scouting report might push Fashanu down the board on draft day.
Barton silenced any questions about his athleticism at Duke’s pro day, and he’s an ideal fit in Mike McDaniel’s movement-based system. Wherever they line him up — Barton can play all five positions along the offensive line — he’ll be an asset, but his future might lie at left tackle, especially if Terron Armstead is preparing to call it a career in a year or two.
The Eagles are a more fragile team than you’d think. They’ve gotten older and more expensive off the edge. Their secondary needs help. And they won’t be able to pay all of their wideouts. In this run, it’s cornerback where they make their move. Kool-Aid McKinstry has gotten overlooked in this draft class but his college tape was just as impressive as his teammate Terrion Arnold’s, and he’d be a great pick at this point for Philadelphia. There are other teams crossing their fingers in hopes he makes it past the Eagles.
Keep investing in the trenches, Arizona. The Cardinals must do a better job protecting Kyler Murray and upgrading with Jackson Powers-Johnson at center will do a lot to help. It’s risky starting so many rookies along the offensive line but they can’t afford to wait; hopefully Powers-Johnson and Taliese Fuaga can perform as advertised so Murray can sling a bunch of touchdown passes to Justin Jefferson.
The Cowboys’ offensive line is a mess, so maybe Dak Prescott isn’t sweating his contract that badly (he could get out of here and play behind a better line of blockers in 2025). Whether they plan on keeping Tyler Guyton on the right side or teaching him to play at left tackle, the Cowboys should bring him in and work to get their offense right and ready for the playoffs. That goal has eluded them as of late.
It’s too easy to pencil Cooper DeJean to the Packers, but we aren’t going to stop doing it. Green Bay has too many holes in its secondary to not consider him. Whether he’s starting ahead of Keisean Nixon in the slot, staying out wide, or moving over the top at safety, he can put out any number of fires for his new team.
The Buccaneers are frustratingly competent these days, which means Nate Wiggins is a virtual lock to swoop in and replace Carlton Davis on top of the depth chart. He’s undersized by NFL standards but plays big and regularly competes with receivers who tower over him. He’ll be a problem for a long time in the NFC South.
Jonathan Gannon gets a new piece for his defense by adding one of the top pass rushers still on the board. Chop Robinson has a lot to learn after experiencing some inconsistencies in college, but the upside is clear enough to justify an early pick.
The Bills almost have to draft the best wideout available after foolishly trading Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans at a big loss; they’re eating $31 million in dead money this year while giving up a late-round pick in exchange for one of their best players. Maybe Adonai Mitchell proves to be a better fit in Joe Brady’s offense, but it’s tough to view this development as anything but negative for Buffalo. Their Super Bowl window is closed for another 25 years.
Taylor Decker will be 31 when the season starts while entering the last year of his contract, and he’s the longest-tenured player in Detroit’s locker room, so it’s important for the Lions to start looking for his successor at some point. Jordan Morgan could be a good get at the end of the first round. He played really well after returning from an injury and could develop into a special player.
The Ravens traded Morgan Moses so they clearly have a plan for replacing him at right tackle, and it might just be picking one of the talented prospects in this draft class. Amarius Mims is projected to go much higher than this but his inexperience at the college level is concerning, and with plenty of other talented right tackles out there he’ll probably take a tumble. Leave it to Baltimore to cash in.
No change here; the 49ers can’t afford to neglect their offensive line after they got pushed around in another Super Bowl loss, and Zach Frazier can help them get faster and tougher whether he’s lining up at guard or center. This is a no-nonsense pick for a team that needs to lock in and finally win a championship after too many years of coming up short.
Xavier Worthy may not be Tyreek Hill, but he’s a rare athlete who handled a heavy workload at a blue-chip college program, and that’s plenty good enough. He’ll click right away with Patrick Mahomes and put opposing defenses on notice that no blade of grass is safe when he’s on the field. The Chiefs should have their pick of receivers here at the end of Round 1.