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Before the Florida swing kicks off next week with the Honda Classic in Palm Beach Gardens, the PGA Tour will make a stop down south for the 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta Vallarta. The 1st round begins on Thursday morning.
Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2024 Mexico Open odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
Tony Finau is looking to defend his title at this tournament after winning it at 24-under-par in 2023 and he’s once again the betting favorite to win, coming into the week at +800. Nicolai Hojgaard has the 2nd-best odds at +1600, followed by Emiliano Grillo and Stephan Jaeger at +2200.
Vidanta Vallarta is 7,456 yards and a par 71, featuring wide fairways and landing areas off the tee. It’s a course that favors longer hitters because of the minimal penalties for inaccurate tee shots, as well as the overall length of the course. Being only the 3rd year of the Mexico Open, this is not a course players have much experience on.
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Mexico Open – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 4:03 p.m. ET.
Nicolai Hojgaard (+350)
Hojgaard hasn’t finished worse than T-39 in his last 5 worldwide starts and has 1 top-5 in that span. As an excellent driver of the ball, this course fits his game well and he could break through with a win against the weaker field in Mexico.
Brandon Wu (+650)
Can Wu make it 3 straight top-5s in this event? He’s finished 2nd and 3rd in the last 2 years, with the only players to beat him being Finau and Jon Rahm. At +650, how can you not take a chance on him to make it 3 in a row?
Mexico Open – Top-10 picks
Patrick Rodgers (+320)
Rodgers has notched back-to-back 10th-place finishes in this event and while he’s finished 79th and and missed the cut in his last 2 starts this season, Vidanta is a comfortable venue for him.
Ryo Hisatsune (+375)
Hisatsune missed the cut at the WM Phoenix Open, but before that he finished 8th, 30th, 11th and 33rd in his previous 4 starts worldwide. This is his Mexico Open debut, but it’s not a terribly difficult course to learn so a lack of experience shouldn’t hurt him much.
Thomas Detry (+250)
Detry pounds the ball off the tee, ranking 39th in distance and 19th in strokes gained: off the tee. He’s finished 20th, 4th and 28th in his last 3 starts since missing the cut at The American Express, so his game is trending up heading to Mexico.
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Mexico Open – Top-20 picks
Michael Kim (+200)
Kim finished T-6 at The American Express last month and 37th at Torrey Pines before missing the cut in Phoenix. He finished 30th here last year so he’s already come close to notching a top-20 in this event.
Alejandro Tosti (+250)
At a course that favors long drivers, Tosti fits the bill. He’s 7th in SG: off the tee and 21st in driving distance, which helped him finish 10th here last year.
Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Greyson Sigg (+300)
- Carson Young (+275)
Mexico Open – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Stephan Jaeger (-110) vs. Emiliano Grillo (-110)
Jaeger has improved his length off the tee and he’s already off to a strong start this season, making the cut in all 4 starts with a T-3 at the Farmers Insurance Open. He’s finished 15th and 18th in this event the last 2 years.
Mexico Open – Top Asian
Ryo Hisatsune (+220)
Hisatsune is due for another high finish after coming in 11th at The American Express last month and notching 2 other top-35 finishes this season. He’s the favorite to be the top Asian player in the field and his +220 odds are very fair.
Mexico Open – First-round leader
Taylor Pendrith (+4000)
Pendrith shot 65 in the 1st round here last year en route to a 30th-place finish. He has 3 other top-10s this season already, though he does rank 126th in 1st-round scoring.
Tony Finau (top 10, +170)
There aren’t many ways to bet Finau this week where you get plus-money, but you could take him at +170 to be in the top 10 after the 1st round. He checked that box last year at this event and could do so again on Thursday with one good round.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Golfweek:
- Mexico Open at Vidanta 2024 odds, course history and picks to win
- One of two cases against Tony Finau dismissed, the other set for October trial
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