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The 2024 Cognizant Classic kicks off on Thursday morning from PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla. It’s the 1st event of the Florida swing, with 2 signature events, the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Players Championship, coming up in March.
Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2024 Cognizant Classic odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
Rory McIlroy comes into the week as the favorite (+750) to win the Cognizant Classic and the highest-ranked golfer in the field, according to the latest Golfweek/Sagarin rankings. He is No. 5 in the rankings, with Russell Henley being the next-closest player in the field at No. 8. Cameron Young, who’s still searching for his 1st career victory, has the 2nd-best odds this week (+2200).
The Champion Course at PGA National will play as a par 71 this week. The 10th hole has been converted into a 530-yard par 5, making the course play at a total of 7,147 yards. Water hazards are in play on every hole, particularly in the Bear Trap from No. 15-17, a brutal stretch toward the end of the round that can make or break a player’s tournament.
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Cognizant Classic – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 4:02 p.m. ET.
Eric Cole (+500)
Cole made his debut at this tournament last year and strolled to a 2nd-place finish, losing in a playoff to Chris Kirk. Going back-to-back with top-5 finishes is difficult in this tournament, but Cole finished 10th in his last start and has 3 top-21 finishes this season already.
Tom Kim (+550)
Kim has never played this tournament, but he’s playing well enough right now to contend despite his lack of experience at PGA National. He’s finished 31st or better in each of his last 3 starts this season and should be in contention this weekend.
Cognizant Classic – Top-10 picks
Russell Henley (+250)
Henley has finished 20th, 8th and 3rd in his last 3 starts at PGA National, showing he knows how to navigate this difficult venue. He’s one of the most accurate drivers on tour, which helps him avoid trouble, which lurks around every corner at PGA National.
Shane Lowry (+333)
Lowry finished 2nd to Sepp Straka in 2022 and he followed that up with a 5th-place finish here last year. It hasn’t been a banner start to the year for the Irishman with just 1 finish better than T-60, but he often plays well here and this could be the event that gets him going in the right direction.
Daniel Berger (+350)
Berger had a lengthy absence due to a back injury, but he’s been working his way into form, finishing 28th at the WM Phoenix Open. He’s finished 4th here in each of his last 2 starts (2020, 2022) so he’s worth backing for another top 10 this week.
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Cognizant Classic – Top-20 picks
Sepp Straka (+180)
Straka was the 2022 champion and finished 5th in 2023, his 4th straight top-35 in this event. After finishing T-26 at Pebble Beach, he missed the cut at the Genesis Invitational, but this is a good bounce-back spot for the big Austrian.
Stephan Jaeger (+180)
Jaeger is fresh off a 3rd-place finish in Mexico and comes to a tournament where he’s made the cut in each of his last 3 tries – including a T-14 last year, his best finish in this event.
Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Carson Young (+375)
- Gary Woodland (+350)
- Beau Hossler (+200)
Cognizant Classic – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Russell Henley (-105) vs. Cameron Young (-120)
Henley’s track record in this event is well-documented, while Young has only played it once (T-16 in 2022). Both are trending in the right direction, but I’ll take Henley, who shouldn’t be an underdog in this matchup.
Daniel Berger (-110) vs. Matthieu Pavon (-110)
Pavon is red hot right now, but he could cool off at a tournament he’s never played in before. Berger, on the other hand, has finished 4th in each of his last 2 PGA National appearances.
Cognizant Classic – Top Irish
Shane Lowry (+250)
With this bet, we’re fading McIlroy, who hasn’t played here since 2018 and has finished 59th and missed the cut in his last 2 PGA National appearances. He struggled a bit at the Genesis Invitational after an even worse showing at Pebble Beach, so he’s not exactly in great form.
Cognizant Classic – Top South African
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+110)
Erik van Rooyen (+138) and Garrick Higgo (+450) are the only other South Africans in the field, so this is essentially a 3-ball bet. Bezuidenhout has finished 42nd and 25th in his last 2 starts at PGA National, while van Rooyen has missed the cut twice and finished 60th in his last 3 starts here. Higgo simply hasn’t been in great form this season.
Cognizant Classic – First-round leader
Daniel Berger (+5000)
Berger was 1 shot off the lead on Thursday in 2022 when he shot 65 and also posted a 69 in Round 1 in 2020 when he went on to finish 4th. He could come out hot this week playing close to home.
Cameron Young (+3300)
Young’s putter is tough to trust right now as he ranks 104th in SG: putting, but this is a ball-striker’s course, which could open the door for Young to go low in Round 1 and claim the first-round lead.
Cognizant Classic – To make the cut
Jaeger, Straka and Mitchell: Yes (+188)
With how volatile this event is, betting anyone to make the cut can be risky. However, Jaeger, Straka and Keith Mitchell all either have good recent form or a solid track record at PGA National.
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Golfweek:
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- Cognizant Classic 2024 odds, course history and picks to win
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