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Bay Hill Club and Lodge will once again play host to the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational this week, a Signature Event on the PGA Tour schedule. The 1st round from Orlando, Fla., begins on Thursday morning.
Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
Scottie Scheffler is the highest-ranked player in this week’s Golfweek/Sagarin rankings, also coming in as the betting favorite (+650) to win at Bay Hill. Nine of the top 10 players in the latest Golfweek/Sagarin rankings are in the field, with the only exception being Jon Rahm, who now plays on LIV. Last year’s champion, Kurt Kitayama, is ranked 111th.
Bay Hill is a par 72 and plays at 7,466 yards. It plays much longer than the listed yardage because water comes into play on several holes, with forced layups to take away the advantages of being a longer hitter. As one of the tougher non-major courses on tour, the winning score has been between 4-under and 12-under par in the last 5 years.
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Arnold Palmer Invitational – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 3:10 p.m. ET.
Rory McIlroy (+200)
It’s easy to fade McIlroy after seeing the way he hit his wedges last week at PGA National, but Bay Hill fits him perfectly. There will be an abundance of long-iron shots and his prowess off the tee makes him a good fit. I’m just not sure he’s got everything firing well enough to win right now, so take him for a top-5.
Viktor Hovland (+275)
Hovland has finished 10th and 2nd in his last 2 starts here, proving to be a great fit for Bay Hill with his elite ball striking. He’s skipped the last 2 tournaments and should be well-rested for this event.
Arnold Palmer Invitational – Top-10 picks
Cameron Young (+220)
Young is trending up after notching 2 top-10 finishes in his last 3 starts. He also has some strong course history here, finishing 10th and 13th in his 2 career starts. Don’t be the least bit surprised if he wins this week, though much of that depends on his putter cooperating.
Ludvig Aberg (+160)
Bay Hill favors elite ball strikers, which Aberg certainly is. He’s excellent from 200 yards out, ranking 29th on tour from that distance and he leads in proximity from 150-175 yards. In his debut as an amateur last year, he finished 24th and gained 1.11 strokes on the field.
Jordan Spieth (+160)
Spieth was disqualified in his last start at the Genesis Invitational, but he was playing well prior to that fluky incident. He’s finished 4th in each of his last 2 starts here and finished 6th at the WM Phoenix Open, his last full start of the season.
Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Max Homa (+188)
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Arnold Palmer Invitational – Top-20 picks
Matt Fitzpatrick (+100)
In 8 starts here, Fitzpatrick has finished 15th or better 6 times and has 4 top-10s. He’s made the cut in 7 of 8 tries and has become a horse for Bay Hill over his career. Despite his underwhelming finishes this season, he’s a good pick this week.
Sungjae Im (+160)
Im has not played well lately, finishing 44th or worse in each of his last 5 starts. Bay Hill could be the venue that gets him headed in the right direction again, though. He’s never finished worse than 21st in 5 career starts here and has two 3rd-place finishes to go with it.
Keegan Bradley (+140)
Bradley never misses this event and in the last 3 years, he’s played particularly well here. He’s finished 10th, 11th and 10th in those 3 starts, so he feels like a very good value at +140 in a field that features just 70 players.
Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+220)
- Corey Conners (+140)
Arnold Palmer Invitational – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Jason Day (+105) vs. Tommy Fleetwood (-135)
Fleetwood is playing well right now, but he shouldn’t be this heavily favored over Day, who has finished in the top 10 in each of his last 2 starts this season and came in 10th last year. Take the underdog at plus money.
Viktor Hovland (-110) vs. Xander Schauffele (-110)
Hovland has a better track record at this event than Schauffele, who has only played twice in the last 4 years and finished outside the top 20 both times.
Arnold Palmer Invitational – Top Australian
Jason Day (+188)
Adam Scott (+225), Min Woo Lee (+225) and Cam Davis (+500) are the only other Australians in the field, but Day is the best value of the bunch at +188. He’s got the best track record here and is playing well at the moment, coming off back-to-back top-10s.
Arnold Palmer Invitational – First-round leader
Cameron Young (+2800)
Young has a good chance to carry over the momentum built at PGA National to Bay Hill. Last year, he shot 67 in the opening round and was tied for 2nd. In 2022, he shot a respectable opening-round 70, too.
Keegan Bradley (+5000)
Bradley has opened with a 69 or better in 3 of his last 5 starts here, including a 68 to put him just 3 shots off the lead last year. In 2019, he was tied for 2nd after shooting 67.
More expert prop bet predictions
Will there be a hole in one? No (-160)
Bay Hill features some of the toughest par 3s on tour. All of them are at least 199 yards long, with 3 of them being at least 215 yards. Pair that with a limited field and there will be fewer opportunities for aces. It’s not fun, but “no” is the better side.
Winning margin: 1 shot (+225)
In each of the last 4 years, the winning margin has been exactly 1 shot. And in 2019, it was 2 strokes, which is still a close finish. Bet this trend to continue at +225.
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Golfweek:
- LIV Golf withdraws application for Official World Golf Ranking points
- Arnold Palmer Invitational 2024 odds, course history and picks to win
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