In the 2nd quarterfinal match of the 2023 Women’s World Cup, Japan battles Sweden. Kickoff from Eden Park is set for 3:30 a.m. ET Friday (FOX). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Japan vs. Sweden odds, and make our best Women’s World Cup bets, picks and predictions.
Japan was dominant in its group stage games, winning the 3 a combined 11-0. It beat Zambia 5-0, Costa Rica 2-0 and Spain 4-0. It then throttled Norway 3-1 Saturday in the Round of 16. Japan ended the group stage as 1 of 3 teams not to allow a goal. That streak ended with Norway, but it did manage 8 more shots and 1 more shot on frame than its opponent. Japan also finished with 61% possession. Japan sits 11th in the FIFA Women’s Ranking.
Sweden, which knocked off USA in the Round of 16, ranks 3rd. Both the nations above it, USA and Germany, have been eliminated. Sweden beat USA in penalty kicks. The 0-0 match ended with USA totaling 13 more shots and 10 more on frame. Sweden did dominate its group stage though, winning all 3 games and having a +8 goal differential. It beat Italy 5-0, Argentina 2-0 and South Africa 2-1.
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Japan vs. Sweden odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 12:05 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Japan +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Sweden +210 (bet $100 to win $210) | Draw +225
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: +130 | U: -185)
Japan vs. Sweden picks and predictions
Prediction
Japan 1, Sweden 0
Moneyline (ML)
BET JAPAN (+125).
While Sweden have performed well enough and even knocked off the top-seeded USA, it hasn’t looked overly impressive. It was down and needed a late goal to beat South Africa in the group stage and had just 1 shot on goal against USA. Sweden’s group stage didn’t showcase its skill, and neither did its match against USA.
Japan has crushed some top-tier sides. It beat Norway 3-1 and Spain 4-0. Both of those nations are top-15 sides. Japan has the technical ability to dominate possession, as did against Norway. Expect another strong showing and a Japanese full-time win.
Take JAPAN (+125).
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS. BET BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE – NO (-145).
Both teams have dominant defensive sides and have showcased that throughout the tournament. That’s why Under 2.5 is juiced at (-185). That is unplayable, especially given Japan’s finishing, having tallied 14 goals in 4 games.
However, I like BOTH TEAMS NOT TO SCORE (-145). Sweden has allowed just 1 goal throughout the 4 games, as has Japan. Japan conceded just 3 shots on goal against Norway. Sweden struggled against the best defense it had faced, USA, being held to just 1 shot on goal.
While Japan has looked strong, it had just 4 shots on goal against Norway. It likely won’t net 75% of its attempts on goal again. Although I still expect Japan to win this game, it should be a low-scoring battle, one which neither side gets many opportunities.
Check out Pro Soccer Wire: For the American soccer fan, USA TODAY Sports Media Group’s website provides a fresh look at the beautiful game.
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