The last event on the Florida Swing is this week: The 2023 Valspar Championship at Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course in Palm Harbor, Fla. Sam Burns will go for his 3rd straight win at this event, but he’ll face some competition from the likes of Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth, among others.
Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 Valspar Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
Thomas is the highest-ranked player in the field this week based on the latest Golfweek/Sagarin rankings, coming in at No. 8 – the only player in the top 10 who will be playing at Innisbrook. Adam Hadwin, Tommy Fleetwood, Maverick McNealy and Matt Fitzpatrick are also in the field, ranking from No. 21-25, respectively. The 2-time defending champion Burns is No. 28 in the rankings.
The Copperhead Course is 7,340 yards and plays as a par 71, testing players’ accuracy off the tee with hazards and bunkers spanning the course. It’s not a course that demands a lot of length off the tee, but there are holes where distance is an advantage.
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Valspar Championship – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 12:45 p.m. ET.
Justin Rose (+500)
Rose plotted his way around TPC Sawgrass really nicely last week en route to a 6th-place finish. Copperhead requires similar accuracy off the tee and placement in the fairways, which should have Rose in a good spot again this week.
His ball striking has been solid lately and he has a decent track record here with a top-5 finish in 2018.
Jordan Spieth (+300)
Spieth had a roller coaster of a week at Sawgrass after finishing 4th at Bay Hill, eventually ending up in 19th at The Players after barely making the cut. He won here back in 2015 and has 4 total top 20s in 5 starts here, showing he has the game to conquer Copperhead.
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Valspar Championship – Top-10 picks
Tommy Fleetwood (+270)
Fleetwood was in contention at The Players before falling apart in the final round and shooting 4-over par on Sunday. In his debut here last year, he tied for 16th and has slowly been rounding into form this season as he pushes for a spot on the Ryder Cup team.
Keegan Bradley (+260)
In his last 5 starts this season, Bradley has 2 top 10s and a top 20 to go along with 2 missed cuts, including last week at The Players. But he only missed the cut because of a quadruple-bogey on the 9th hole Friday, which blew up his 2nd round.
Sam Burns (+210)
Burns has not only won this tournament each of the last 2 years, but he also has a T-30 and T-12 in his 2 other starts here. So it’s not just the wins that put him ahead of most of the field. A top-10 against a field that lacks the star power of bigger events should be very doable for Burns, and at +210, he’s a good value.
Valspar Championship – Top-20 picks
Justin Suh (+180)
Suh hasn’t finished worse than 40th in his last 4 starts, coming in 6th last week and 5th at the Honda Classic. He’s quietly been one of the steadier players in the last two months, showing he has the game to compete with the best. This will be his 1st start at the Vaslpar Championship, but he showed no disadvantages in his debut at TPC Sawgrass last week.
Matt Fitzpatrick (-105)
Fitzpatrick is almost at even money for a top-20 finish, which feels like a good value, especially considering he tied for 5th here last year. He typically plays better on more difficult courses and Copperhead is up there as a challenging track.
Akshay Bhatia (+380)
Bhatia played here in 2019 and missed the cut, but that was his only start in this event. He’s coming off a 2nd-place finish at the Puerto Rico Open and he has 2 other top-10s on the Korn Ferry Tour this season.
Valspar Championship – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Jordan Spieth (+100) vs. Justin Thomas (-120)
Thomas was just off last week. Spieth had his moments where he didn’t look completely dialed in, but those were far fewer than Thomas, who has been wayward with his driver lately and that’s not a recipe for success this week. Give me Spieth at even money.
Ben Griffin (-110) vs. Gary Woodland (-110)
Griffin followed up a T-21 and T-14 in his last 2 starts with a T-35 at The Players, a very strong stretch for the 26-year-old. He faded late in the week at The Players but his game is strong right now and Woodland has only made the cut once in his last 4 starts here.
Valspar Championship – Top American
Sam Burns (+1200)
Thomas and Spieth don’t worry me a lot at this tournament, which gives Burns an even better value as the 3rd-best American in the field. I’ll take the 2-time defending champion at +1200 to be the top American, which is only slightly worse than his outright odds of +1500.
Valspar Championship – 1st-round leader
Ben Griffin (+5000)
Griffin started last week with a very good 5-under round of 67 at Sawgrass before slipping as the week went on. He ranks 6th on tour in 1st-round scoring average, making him a good value at +5000.
More expert prop bet predictions
Group B winner: Tommy Fleetwood (+280)
Fleetwood has Bradley (+280), Hadwin (+320), Davis Riley (+425) and Denny McCarthy (+425) in his betting group this week, which is actually a solid collection of players and contenders. I like Fleetwood with his iron play and impressive performance here last year, as well as his play in the first 3 rounds before collapsing on Sunday.
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