The Huddle created the fantasy football schedule strength by positions in 1997 and has continuously tweaked and refined it. This provides an early expectation for your fantasy players by applying the averages allowed by defenses last year to current schedules.
The analysis also considers the venue. There is a difference between how defenses respond either home or away, which creates 64 individual “defensive matchups” depending on the game location.
The scoring was a point for every 20 passing yards and four-point touchdowns. Rushing is a point for every 10 yards and six-point scores. The average passing fantasy points allowed by defenses to quarterbacks are at the bottom of this page for reference.
Total Points
For fantasy contests and some leagues, only total points matter. Below are the total points for each passing offense, according to their schedule using the averages allowed in 2022 by those defenses.
Weekly Play
Three different views are below. Week 1 to 17 is the full-season fantasy strength of schedule. “The Dorey Rule” says to draft by considering the first six weeks for a hot start. Finally, Weeks 15 to 17 represent the most common fantasy playoff weeks. “Good” games were when they faced one of the top 22 venues from last year; “Bad” was when they played in one of the worst 22.
Notable schedules
Desmond Ridder (ATL) – The only “bad” games that the Falcons face are homestands against the Texans and Buccaneers. And the Texans usually lost to the run anyway. The Atlanta offense enters Year 2 under HC Arthur Smith with spotty results last season, but the schedule won’t get in the way of Ridder showing improvement in his second season.
Jimmy Garoppolo (LV) – Almost half of the Raiders games face bottom-22 defensive venues and Garoppolo isn’t going to bother with taking off on a run. The Las Vegas offense looks to get more conservative, but HC Josh McDaniels second season gets a schedule gift when they pass.
Derek Carr (NO) – The Saints open with a tough stretch of three bad matchups in their first six games, but it gets far kinder the rest of the way with six of the seven matchups facing weaker defensive venues from Week 7 through 14. He’ll finish better than he starts and the Saints return all three starters at wideout.
Jared Goff (DET) – Four of the first six games are advantageous matchups that should get the Lions’ offense get on track while they integrate Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, and Marvin Jones into the system. Jameson Williams misses the opening weeks but adds to the crew when the schedule turns average the rest of the way.
Justin Fields (CHI) – Fields used his legs to produce most fantasy points last year, but the Bears added DJ Moore to Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool, and Fields faces an NFL-best nine games against the lesser defensive venues from last year. That should help even out his fantasy points if he ends up rushing less and passing more often.
Kyler Murray (ARI) – He tore his ACL late last year and his return date isn’t yet certain. Whenever he does show up, it will be to a new offensive scheme and the worst schedule of any NFL quarterback – eight bad matchups and not one good game. Adding the schedule to Murray’s injury situation and all of the Cardinals fantasy players get rightfully dinged.
Brock Purdy/Trey Lance/Sam Darnold (SF) – The 49ers are a great team and a very complex offense. There’s no certainty which quarterback plays when, and no matter who is under center, they go against one of the toughest schedules in the league. It all improves starting in Week 14 with just one more bad matchup, but seven of their first 12 games face tougher matchups than most.
Sam Howell (WAS) -The keys to the offense are given to second-year quarterback Sam Howell, but he starts out with five of his first seven games playing in tough defensive venues. The schedule clears up starting in Week 8 but a slow start is always a problem in fantasy football.
2023 weekly schedule strength by team
Fantasy points per venue allowed to quarterbacks
These are the values applied to this year’s schedule to determine strength of schedule for quarterbacks.
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