The stars will be out this week for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Fla. It’s the 4th elevated event on the PGA Tour schedule this season, which means most of the biggest players in the sport will be teeing it up as 44 of the top 50 in the Official World Golf Ranking are in the field.
Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
Last year’s champion, Scottie Scheffler, is back to defend his title after successfully doing so at the WM Phoenix Open 2 weeks ago. He’s not the favorite, however. Jon Rahm has the best odds to win this week (+650), followed by Rory McIlroy (+900) and then Scheffler (+1000). Max Homa has the 4th-best odds (+1500) as he looks to continue his hot streak, too.
Bay Hill will test every part of a player’s game, being one of the toughest courses on the schedule. There’s water on most holes, so placement off the tee and accuracy into the greens are essential. It’s a par 72 and will play at 7,466 yards this week.
WATCH: PGA Tour is live on ESPN+! Get ESPN+
Arnold Palmer Invitational – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 3:14 p.m. ET.
Rory McIlroy (+210)
This week is a great time to bet McIlroy. He’s coming off 2 somewhat disappointing finishes – T-32 in Phoenix and T-29 at the Genesis – and is heading to a course where he’s had a lot of success. He’s only finished worse than T-13 once in 8 starts here and has 3 top-10s, including a win in 2018. He’s a perfect fit for Bay Hill.
Scottie Scheffler (+230)
Scheffler won here last year and with the way he’s playing right now, there’s no reason to doubt he’ll do it again. In 2 starts at the API, Scheffler has a win and a T-15, so he seems to enjoy this course. Always a player who thrives in stacked fields, Scheffler is a good bet for a top-5 finish.
Patrick Cantlay (+425)
Cantlay has never played the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which is surprising. And though he’ll only be making his debut this week, he has the game to succeed at Bay Hill. He’s relatively accurate with his driver, ranking 12th in strokes gained: off the tee, and his putter can get hot in a hurry.
Other T5 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Tony Finau (+450)
- Xander Schauffele (+450)
Catch the excitement and bet with Tipico
Double Down, Ohio! Deposit $200, Get $250. Bet now!
In Colorado and New Jersey, claim your 100% Deposit Match up to $250 now. Bet now! 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions.
Arnold Palmer Invitational – Top-10 picks
Will Zalatoris (+200)
Zalatoris tied for 10th here 2 years ago and finished 36th in 2022, making the cut in each of his 2 starts at Bay Hill. Another pure ball-striker, Zalatoris’ iron game will give him an edge in this impressive field. He just needs the putter to cooperate, which it has this season; he ranks 27th in strokes gained on the greens.
Collin Morikawa (+190)
Morikawa has only played this tournament twice, with the last time coming in 2020 when he tied for 9th. He seems to have figured things out with his irons after tying for 6th at Riviera, which should give him some momentum coming into this week.
Viktor Hovland (+260)
In 8 starts this season, including his unofficial win at the Hero World Challenge, Hovland has only finished worse than 21st once, and even that was a respectable T-42 in Phoenix. He tied for 2nd at Arnold’s place last year and is a good bet to finish near the top again this season.
Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Sungjae Im (+300)
- Justin Thomas (+250)
Arnold Palmer Invitational – Top-20 picks
Tommy Fleetwood (+240)
Fleetwood has top-20 finishes in 3 of his 6 starts at this event, making the cut all but once. He’s a longshot this week in a strong field, but he has the game and iron play to contend.
Keegan Bradley (+240)
Bradley is a regular at the API, playing this event 11 times and making the cut 10 times. He tied for 10th and 11th the last 2 years, finding success at Bay Hill, which could continue this time around.
Hideki Matsuyama (+210)
Matsuyama has made the cut in each of his 8 starts at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, including back-to-back years in the top 20 (T-20 and T-18). He also has a T-6 and T-21 on his resume here, showing Bay Hill suits his eye well.
Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Beau Hossler (+450)
- Aaron Wise (+300)
Arnold Palmer Invitational – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Collin Morikawa (+100) vs. Max Homa (-120)
It’s hard not to like both Morikawa and Homa this week, but I’ll take the value with Morikawa at even money. He looked great at the Genesis Invitational – I know, Homa did too in his victory – and though Homa has no weaknesses, Morikawa has the edge with his irons.
Sungjae Im (-110) vs. Jason Day (-110)
Im has a strong track record here, which has me inclined to bet him in a couple of different ways. In 4 years, he’s finished T-20, T-21, 3rd and T-3. That’s about as good as it gets without a win. Day has won this event before but since 2019, he’s played here 3 times and withdrawn twice.
Sahith Theegala (-110) vs. Shane Lowry (-110)
Here’s a mind-blowing stat: Lowry has never made the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 4 tries. That’s an aberration for the Irishman, but I’m not going to take him over Theegala with that sort of history.
Arnold Palmer Invitational – Top American
Will Zalatoris (+1000)
Playing the Top American takes out McIlroy and Rahm at the top of the board. That’s a good way to play Zalatoris against the rest of the Americans in the field, with Scheffler being the favorite at +550.
Arnold Palmer Invitational – Top Irish
Rory McIlroy (-160)
Seamus Power (+450), Lowry (+300) and Padraig Harrington (+1200) are the other Irish players in the field, which is why McIlroy is such a heavy favorite. But given Lowry’s track record here and McIlroy’s success, I’m willing to take him even at -160.
Arnold Palmer Invitational – 1st-round leader
Tony Finau (+3000)
Finau ranks 6th on tour in 1st-round scoring average and although his record here isn’t great, he’s someone who can pour in the birdies at a high rate. He’s been in great form lately, too, with nothing worse than a T-20 in his last 7 starts.
Sungjae Im (+4000)
Here’s another way to play Im at Bay Hill. He has the 21st-best 1st-round scoring average this season and as previously mentioned, he’s already finished in the top 3 twice here.
More expert prop bet predictions
Group E winner: Hideki Matsuyama (+350)
Chris Kirk (+330), Shane Lowry (+330), Keith Mitchell (+330) and Corey Conners (+400) are the other players in this group, which makes it another way to fade Lowry. Matsuyama has back-to-back top-20s in this event and should play well again this week.
Winning margin: 2 shots (+400)
These elevated fields often yield some close finishes, but not too close. The first 3 were all won by 2 shots, so let’s throw a dart and bet that that trend will continue this week.
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
Want some action on the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational? Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, SportsbookWire’s official sportsbook partner in OH, CO and NJ. Bet now!
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.
Golfweek:
- Pathways to LIV Golf: Explaining the league’s new promotion, relegation system
- Bay Hill’s par 3s might be the toughest on Tour (and they have a huge impact on the Arnold Palmer Invitational)
Follow @camdasilva on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1364]