2022 Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s 2022 Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds at in Sonoma, Calif., with NASCAR odds, picks and predictions.

The NASCAR Cup Series comes to Sonoma Raceway in Sonoma, Calif. Sunday for the 2022 Toyota/Save Mart 350. The green flag is set to drop a little after 4 p.m. ET (FS1). Below we analyze the 2022 Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds and lines, with NASCAR picks and predictions.

Sunday’s race is scheduled for 110 laps and 350 kilometers at Sonoma Raceway. The track has been reconfigured to incorporate the popular “Chute”, making Turn 7 a high-speed corner, which has had plenty of passing and incidents in the past.

With the Carousel gone, and the Chute returning, the race length remains the same, but we now have 110 laps, rather than 90 in 2021. Martin Truex Jr. was the last driver to win using the Chute configuration back in 2018.

2022 Toyota/Save Mart 350: What you need to know

  • Hendrick Motorsports driver Kyle Larson picked up the checkered flag last season in the Carousel layout, snapping a 2-race win streak at Sears Point by Truex.
  • Ford hasn’t been to Victory Lane at Sonoma since July 2017 when Kevin Harvick raced to checkers. Ford has just 2 wins in the past 18 races at the course, too.
  • Truex posted an average speed of 82.882 mph in June 2018 in the most recent track configuration featuring The Chute, and the high-speed Turn 7.
  • Erik Jones actually leads all active drivers with a 12.8 Average-Finish Position (AFP) in 4 career Sonoma starts, posting a pair of top-10 finishes.
  • Kyle Busch (2) and Truex (3) are the only active drivers with multiple victories at this track. Busch has a 14.6 AFP in 16 career Cup starts at Sonoma, including 2 wins, 6 top-5 runs and 8 top-10 finishes.
  • Kurt Busch is 2nd to Truex (213) among all active drivers with 206 laps led at this track.

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Toyota/Save Mart 350 – Expert picks

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 9 a.m. ET.

CHASE ELLIOTT (+550) is installed as the favorite, and he has been a road-course sensation during the early part of his career. While he has never won at Sonoma, he has a solid 14.4 AFP with 2 top-5 finishes in 5 career Cup runs. He was a runner-up to Larson (+700) last season in this event, too.

TRUEX JR. (+900) is also a strong play based upon his history at the track, including wins in 2 of his past 3 Cup starts at Sonoma.

Toyota/Save Mart 350 picks – Long shot

ERIK JONES (+5000) has never won in his 4 career Cup starts at this California road course, but he has been as high as 7th. A simple $2 bet can net a $100 return, and it’s worth a roll of the dice based upon his solid showings in the past.

Toyota/Save Mart 350 prop picks

KEVIN HARVICK TOP-10 FINISH (+140)

Harvick at plus-money for a top-10 finish should be a steal. He has managed a victory with 6 top-5 finishes and 10 top-10 runs in 20 career Cup starts at Sonoma, leading 95 laps. His 13.2 AFP leads all active drivers with a minimum of 5 Cup starts at the track, too.

ERIK JONES TOP-10 FINISH (+150)

Jones is a bargain at plus-money for a top-10 run. Above, we touched on his success at this track in his previous 4 Cup starts. He leads all drivers with a 12.8 AFP, and he has been in the top-10 twice. He was 9th on the road course at COTA in late March, and he was 11th at Sonoma last season. This is a bet worth making.

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