2022 RBC Canadian Open odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the golf odds to win the 2022 RBC Canadian Open, with PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

After a 2-year hiatus due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2022 RBC Canadian Open returns for the 111th playing of Canada’s National Men’s Open Championship.

St. George’s Golf and Country Club in Toronto is a par 70, playing to 7,014 yards and has hosted the RBC Canadian Open 5 times, most recently in 2010. Below, we look at the 2022 RBC Canadian Open odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

PGA Championship winner Justin Thomas is in the field, which includes reigning Masters champion Scottie Scheffler and defending RBC Canadian Open champion Rory McIlroy (2019).

Current PGA Tour players Corey Conners, Michael Gligic, Adam Hadwin, Mackenzie Hughes, Roger Sloan, Adam Svensson and Nick Taylor are among 20 Canadians scheduled to compete.

Ontario’s Mike Weir, an 8-time PGA Tour winner who was inducted into Canada’s Golf Hall of Fame in 2009, is among the several Canadians competing on exemption. Weir, who was also inducted into Canada’s Sports Hall of Fame in 2017, will be playing in his 29th RBC.

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RBC Canadian Open – Expert pick

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 9:31 p.m. ET.

Cameron Smith (+1200)

Despite never winning a major, Smith is typically priced along with the favorites because he’s a major victory away from being a household name.

Smith has the 4th-best odds in this field but is 1st in shots gained (SG) in the world (per DataGolf.com) and 1st on my mixed model (courtesy of FantasyNational.com).

The 5-time PGA Tour winner is 1st in birdies-or-better gained and proximity 125-150 over the last 36 rounds. There are more birdies than bogeys scored at St. George’s, which has slightly more approach shots from 125-150 yards than your average PGA Tour event.

The golfers priced higher than Smith makes sense: Scheffler (+750), Thomas (+900) and McIlroy (+900). However, Smith’s as good as anyone in the world at the moment and we are getting him at a great price in a mediocre field.

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RBC Canadian Open picks – Contender

Adam Hadwin (+4000)

The bottom line is there are 11 golfers with shorter odds than Hadwin and my custom stat model pegs him as the 5th-strongest golfer in this field over the past 50 rounds.

Hadwin ranks 3rd in SG: Par 3 and 4th in sand saves in the field over that span and 1st in SG: Comp courses. There are 5 par-3 holes at St. George’s and most of the holes throughout the course are surrounded by bunkers.

Also, Hadwin has placed in the top 10 at two Canadian Opens (2015 and ’19) and plays well at the comp courses used: TPC Summerlin (host of the Shriners Open) and La Quinta Country Club (host of the American Express). Hadwin has six top 10’s combined at the Shriners and AMEX.

RBC Canadian Open picks – Long shot

Ryan Armour (+20000)

Armour should thrive at St. George’s since it’s a short course and he has the PGA Tour’s best drive accuracy. Since Armour has the best proximity to the hole on approach shots, he should have plenty of birdie opportunities.

Armour is 9th in this field for both par 4 efficiency: 450-500 and sand saves. As mentioned, most of the holes at St. George’s have sand traps and 7 of the 10 par 4’s fall within the 450-500 yard range.

With his accuracy off the tee and solid greens in regulation percentage, Armour just needs a hot putter to put himself in the mix at the RBC Canadian Open. It turns out Armour’s best putting surface – bent grass greens – is what he’ll be putting on at St. George’s.

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