The 2022 Memorial Tournament tees off from Thursday at the Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio. Below, we tab the best value prop bets on a trio of golfers among the 2022 Memorial Tournament odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
Many of the world’s best are in this 120-golfer invitation-only field including 2021 Memorial champion Patrick Cantlay and 2020 winner and Golfweek’s No. 1 golfer Jon Rahm.
Cantlay won his second Memorial Tournament last year when Rahm had to withdraw before the final round with a 6-stroke lead after testing positive for COVID-19.
Other Top-10 golfers in this week’s field are Viktor Hovland (4th), Rory McIlroy (5th), Hideki Matsuyama (6th), Cameron Smith (7th) and Shane Lowry (9th).
Muirfield Village Golf Club is a par 72 playing to 7,543 yards. The Memorial has a $12 million prize pool and the winner gets the Jack Nicklaus Memorial Tournament Trophy. The top-65 golfers and ties make the cut after 36 holes.
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2022 Memorial Tournament best bets
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 8:25 p.m. ET.
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Fitzpatrick is one of the best golfers in the world to be winless on the PGA Tour, but has been playing phenomenally entering the Memorial.
He has 6 top-10 finishes in his last 10 tournaments and one of those non-top-10s was a 14th-place finish at the Masters. Not too shabby.
The Memorial Tournament is one of the tougher non-majors on the PGA Tour and has an average cut-line of +2 since 2010.
Fitzpatrick is 5th in this field in Shots Gained (SG) at courses with difficult scoring conditions (per FantasyNational.com). Also, Fitzpatrick is 1st in this field in Shots Gained (SG): Scrambling and Bogey Avoidance over his last 24 rounds.
He is 8th in Par 3 Efficiency: 200-225 and Par 5 Efficiency: 550-600. There are 3 Par 3s and 3 Par 5s that are within those distances at Muirfield.
The bottom line is my mixed model at FantasyNational.com ranked Fitzpatrick as the 6th-strongest golfer in this field and he’s tied for the 10th-best odds with a few other golfers hence the value.
- $20 for winner (+3000) to earn a $600 profit
- $30 for top-10 finish (+240) to earn a $72 profit
- $52.50 for top-20 finish (-105) to earn a $50 profit
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Max Homa
Homa has been red-hot since February, posting 6 top-20s in his last 8 tournaments with a win at the Wells Fargo Championship in early May. His only non-top-20 finishes include a 23rd-place finish at last week’s Charles Schwab Challenge and 48th at the Masters.
Over his last 24 rounds, Homa ranks 5th in this field in Proximity: 150-175 and 10th in Proximity: 175-200, 4th in Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 and 6th in Par 5 Efficiency 550-600 (per FantasyNational.com).
Those proximity stats were included in my model for the Memorial because there are 2.8% more approach shots within 150-175 yards and 4.6% more approach shots from 175-200 at Muirfield compared to average PGA events. Also, seven Par 4 holes at the Memorial are within 450-500 yards.
- $20 for winner (+4000) to earn an $800 profit
- $30 for top-10 finish (+350) to earn a $105 profit
- $50 for top-20 finish (+140) to earn a $70 profit
Matt Kuchar
When shopping lines for the Memorial, I looked for golfers who hit fairways and are good around-the-green (ARG). Muirfield has long rough and is the 5th-toughest course ARG of any PGA venue since 2015 (per Data Golf).
This led me to Kuchar who’s 9th in fairways gained in the field over the last 50 rounds and 4th in the world in SG: ARG, per Data Golf. In fact, Kuchar has picked up an average of 3.3 strokes on the field in his last 6 tourneys.
Kuchar’s ARG prowess is a big reason he’s 1st in Scrambling and 8th in Bogey Avoidance in the last 50 rounds. If things go awry for Kuchar from tee to green, he’ll usually make up for it with an elite chip or bunker shot.
Also, Kuchar has 4 top-20s over his last 6 tourneys: 16th at the Valspar Championship, 2nd at the Valero Open, 3rd at the RBC Heritage and 12th at the AT&T Byron Nelson. He won the 2013 Memorial Tournament, finished in the top-20 twice (2014 and 2018) and 4th twice in 2016-17.
- $20 for winner (+7000) to earn a $1,400 profit
- $30 for top-10 finish (+550) to earn a $165 profit
- $50 for top-20 finish (+220) to earn a $110 profit
More Memorial Tournament coverage:
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