The last week of the West Coast swing did not disappoint as Joaquin Niemann collected his second PGA Tour victory and entered the top 20 in the Official World Golf Ranking for the first time in his career (He’s also No. 19 in the Golfweek/Sagarin rankings). Now it’s time to kick off the Florida swing with this week’s Honda Classic.
To start, the field is nowhere close to as loaded as it was last week in the Pacific Palisades. None of the top 10 players in the world have made the trip to PGA National, however, there are still some big names looking to leave the Palm Beach area with a win.
Golf course
PGA National (Champion)
Par 70
7,125
Greens: Bermuda
Defending champion: Matt Jones
Weather
| Day | Temperature | Conditions | Percent chance of rain | Wind & Direction |
| Tuesday | 79 | Partly Sunny | 16 percent | 17 MPH (ESE) |
| Wednesday | 80 | Partly Cloudy | 12 percent | 11 MPH (E) |
| Thursday | 80 | Partly Cloudy | 14 percent | 14 MPH (ESE) |
| Friday | 81 | Partly Cloudy | 6 percent | 11 MPH (ESE) |
| Saturday | 81 | Mostly Sunny | 5 percent | 10 MPH (E) |
| Sunday | 83 | Mostly Sunny | 6 percent | 9 MPH (SSE) |
Key statistics
Strokes Gained: Approach: This is a tough golf course, one of the toughest the guys will play all year long. It will be critical to make it as easy as possible with hitting greens and getting through the Bear Trap unscathed. Let’s target players who’ve been striking their irons great recently.
Bermuda putting: Putting on Bermuda greens can be tricky, especially for players who don’t see them every week (AKA: the guys who don’t live in the South). May be a good idea to target players who putt well on this kind of surface.
Data Golf Information
Course Fit (compares golf courses based on the degree to which different golfer attributes — such as driving distance — to predict who performs well at each course – DataGolf): 1. Ridgewood Country Club, 2. Olympia Fields Country Club, 3. Liberty National Golf Club
Trending: 1. Joaquin Niemann (last three starts: T-6, T-8, 1), 2. Daniel Berger (T-5, T-20, MC), 3. Denny McCarthy (T-6, T-12, MC)
Percent chance to win (based on course history, fit, trending, etc.): 1. Daniel Berger (6.1 percent), 2. Sungjae Im (5.9 percent), 3. Joaquin Niemann (4.8 percent)
Latest Twilight 9 episode
Andy and I discuss the Saudi Arabia situation, the Genesis Invitational, Rory McIlroy taking shots at Phil Mickelson, this week’s Honda Classic, several picks for the week, and more.
Apple | Spotify | Google | Other links
Betting odds
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds a full list.
| Player | Odds |
| Sungjae Im | (+1200) |
| Daniel Berger | (+1500 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | (+2000) |
| Billy Horschel | (+2000) |
| Tommy Fleetwood | (+2000) |
| Brooks Koepka | (+2000) |
| Joaquin Niemann | (+2000) |
| Shane Lowry | (+3000) |
| Alexander Noren | (+4000) |
| Brian Harmon | (+4000) |
Betting card for the 2022 Honda Classic
Last week’s results (Genesis Invitational)
Rory McIlroy – Top 20: Cash (+110)
Will Zalatoris – Top 20: Miss
Adam Hadwin – Top Canadian: Undecided (not a single Canadian made the cut, might be a push)
Adam Scott – Top 20: Cash (+170)
Joaquin Niemann – Top South American: Cash (+170)
Xander Schauffele – Top 20: Cash (+110)
Rory McIlroy – Outright: Miss
Xander Schauffele – Outright: Miss
Will Zalatoris – Outright: Miss
+4.6 units on position plays (if Hadwin Top Canadian is a push), and -3 units on outrights at Genesis Invitational.
+13.39 units on position plays in 2022. +17.5 units on outright plays in 2022.
Billy Horschel – Top 20 (+125)
After what he said about Phil Mickelson and the Saudi Arabian league, tough to not put him on the card this week. Horschel has been trending toward a win throughout 2022: T-36 at the Sony, T-11 at the Farmers, and T-6 in Scottsdale.
In his last five appearances at the Honda, Horschel missed the weekend in 2018 but has also accumulated three top 20s which includes two top 10s and a top five.
Keith Mitchell – Top 20 (+170)
Mitchell’s career at the Honda has been the ultimate mixed bag. In four appearances he has a win, two missed cuts, and a T-53 last season (although, that T-53 came after a stretch of missing four cuts in his last five starts).
He’s made four starts so far in 2022 and despite missing the cut at the Farmers, in his other three starts, doesn’t have a finish worse than T-12.
Of the players in this field over his last 12 rounds, Mitchell is first in SG: Ball-striking, second in SG: Off the Tee, and 11th in SG: Approach.
Alex Noren – Top 20 (+170)
Noren’s career at the Honda is also a mixed bag. In his last three appearances, he’s finished third, missed the cut, and tied for 46th. A few weeks ago, Noren bagged a top 10 at the WM Phoenix Open and has made the weekend in his last three starts. In a weaker field, don’t be surprised if he makes a run.
*Full betting card will be on my Twitter sometime Wednesday, February 23rd.
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