A field of 124 (Louis Oosthuizen had to withdraw) is at Liberty National Golf Club for The Northern Trust and the beginning of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Below, we’ll look for the best value prop bets in the 2021 Northern Trust odds, with matchups, placings and first-round leader PGA Tour picks and predictions.
The top 70 golfers in the season-long FedEx Cup standings after this week will advance to the BMW Championship. From there, the top 30 will move on to the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club for the 2020-21 season finale.
Dustin Johnson comes into the event as the reigning Northern Trust champion but last year’s tournament was played at TPC Boston. Patrick Reed last won this event at Liberty National GC in 2019. Collin Morikawa begins the playoffs as the FedEx Cup points leader, while Jon Rahm is this week’s betting favorite and top player in the Golfweek/Sagarin rankings.
2021 Northern Trust picks: Matchups (72 holes)
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 9 p.m. ET.
Paul Casey (-110) vs. Hideki Matsuyama
Both golfers tied for fourth in the Olympic Golf Competition and then followed it up with a top-five finish at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. Matsuyama then missed the cut at last week’s Wyndham Championship while Casey took the week off.
Casey is the better of the two off the tee and with the irons, while also having an advantage on the greens. He’s the pick on an evenly-priced line against the 2021 Masters champion.
Also see:
Rory McIlroy (-120) vs. Brooks Koepka
McIlroy, a two-time FedEx Cup champion, is a slight favorite in this head-to-head match with an implied win probability of 54.55%.
He tied for sixth at Liberty National in 2019 en route to winning the FedEx Cup at East Lake. He begins this year’s playoffs at 26th in the season-long standings and needs a good showing to secure his spot at the Tour Championship.
2021 Northern Trust picks: Placings
Top 10: Keegan Bradley (+1000)
Bradley comes into the playoffs 43rd in the season-long standings and is already well positioned to advanced to at least the BMW Championship. He tied for 64th in this event in 2019 but with a dreadful 0.79 strokes lost per round with the putter while averaging 0.45 Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee per round.
He’s fourth in this field with 0.89 SG: Approach per round for the season and has also been well above average off the tee and around the greens.
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Top American: Patrick Cantlay (+2000)
Tied for 12th here in 2019 and returns as an excellent course fit. He’s averaging 0.44 SG: Around-the-Green and 0.65 SG: Approach per round, has two wins already this season and is third in the FedEx Cup standings.
He also has a secret weapon this week with Tiger Woods’ former caddie, Joe LaCava, on the bag.
2021 Northern Trust picks: First-round leader
Ian Poulter (+6000)
The veteran Englishman has been playing good golf in an effort to lock up his spot on the European Ryder Cup roster.
He had made seven straight cuts internationally, including two top-10 finishes, prior to a T-10 showing at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. He now returns to Liberty National as a T-10 finisher from 2019 while ranked third in this field with 0.73 SG: Putting per round for the season.
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