After an unconventional selection experience last year, the 2021 NFL Draft returns to a sense of normalcy.
Fantasy football draft season may not be close to hitting its crescendo, but hardcore gamers have been selecting players prior to the conclusion of bowl season.
The real thing is finally upon us! Follow along for real-time analysis the NFL draft’s opening round’s impact on fantasy football plans for 2021.
Round 1
1) QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: The worst-kept draft secret in recent memory, Lawrence is tasked with turning around a Jacksonville franchise that was one win away from a Super Bowl appearance just a few seasons ago, prior to as precipitous of a fall from grace.
He is as “pro ready” as we’ve seen in recent years, and Jacksonville has put enough talent around Lawrence to expect immediate contributions. The receiving corps boasts DJ Chark Jr., Marvin Jones Jr. and Laviska Shenault Jr., plus a competent rushing attack behind a respectable offensive line. A shaky defensive unit won’t hurt Lawrence’s counting stats, either.
Expect Lawrence to hit the ground at least jogging, but a full-on sprint is likely before season’s end. He is by far the best rookie quarterback in 2021 fantasy action, and there’s little doubt Lawrence will become a lineup fixture for years to come. Think midrange QB2 in ’21 with potential to be the top fake passer in as little as a season or two.
2) QB Zach Wilson, New York Jets: While the Jets will immediately start Wilson, the talent around the gunslinger is suspect. Wideouts Corey Davis, Jamison Crowder and Denzel Mims bring three levels of attack points within the route tree, but few will argue this group is any better than average until we see more from the outside guys. Keelan Cole comes off a fine year in Jacksonville and offers slot depth behind the oft-injured Crowder.
The line still needs to show it is ready to consistently offer reliable protection, and there’s currently no rushing game to speak of behind it. Granted, this should be addressed early in the draft, but it makes for two rookie starters in key roles that are thoroughly dependent upon each other’s successes. Not ideal.
Wilson has oodles of talent, moxie, and upside for fantasy football purposes. It may not all come together in 2021 with a first-time head coach and a rookie offensive coordinator, especially with this system expected to be a replica of the notoriously complicated Kyle Shanahan design.
Wilson is a matchup-based reserve for the short term and has the tools to develop into a top-flight fantasy passer within the first two or three years of his career. But it comes with notable risk, so he may not be suitable for gamers unwilling to take even a modest leap of faith.
3) QB Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers: Lance did not play in 2020, but he owns a 17-0 record at North Dakota State. More importantly, he fits the San Francisco offensive system extremely well, due to mobility and the requisite arm strength to sling it. He played in a pro-style system in college, and there’s a ton of RPO success on tape, too.
The 49ers run an unbelievably complex system under Kyle Shanahan, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise if we don’t see Lance in 2021. Given the extensive injury history of Jimmy Garoppolo, in addition to the amount of capital spent on acquiring Lance, he’s closer to seeing the field than any other rookie quarterback entering behind an entrenched starter. There’s so much to mold and work with here that Shanahan will find creative ways to put Lance in smart situations to limit the potential for error.
Next up, keep an eye on whether Garoppolo is traded during the draft or shortly thereafter, but media reports suggest there is no immediate deal in the works. Should Lance start from Week 1, he’s a fringe starter in fantasy based on his wheels and the weapons around him. His long-range outlook is through the roof.
4) TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons: The Hayden Hurst experiment effectively comes to an unceremonious end with the highest selection of a tight end in NFL history. Florida’s Pitts is an absolute freak of nature and immediately upgrades the weaponry for Matt Ryan.
The Falcons need help on defense, and one could argue Ryan’s successor was a viable choice, but Pitts is far too talented for a former tight ends coach in head coach Arthur Smith to miss out on. Count on creative ways to get him involved, and he’ll be a threat at each level of the route tree.
This system will emphasize the position, and while rookie tight ends rarely are fantasy weapons, Pitts should be the exception. He has low-end TE1 appeal, and his athleticism means even a low-volume week could turn in big-time stats.
5) WR Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals: The former LSU Tiger is reunited with his collegiate quarterback in Joe Burrow (knee), and fantasy gamers will enjoy the connection for years to come. However, protecting Burrow is now the top priority in this draft, and it is fortunately a deep class for this area of need.
Cincinnati has Chase entering the picture after sitting out the 2020 season (COVID opt-out). He will step in as the presumptive WR1 when looking at the entire season, but it could take some time to get things going. He will have second-year receiver Tee Higgins to rely on to help him get up to speed after finding success as a rookie in 2020, and Tyler Boyd is the elder statesman of this corps at 24.
Chase brings downfield prowess to help balance the passing game. Boyd is the intermediate and short-area guy, whereas Higgins is an asset in the red zone and as a chain-mover when tough yards are necessary. Chase has the flair to take over games and uncork a long one at any moment. Fantasy gamers should treat him as a WR3 in 2021 leagues, and his long-term valuation is as a rock-solid No. 1 weapon.
6) WR Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins: Just as Chase was reunited with his former quarterback from the 2019 season, Waddle will be catching passes from Tua Tagovailoa, his collegiate ‘slinger.
DeVante Parker returns as the likely No. 1 target, and he’ll be joined by former Houston Texans first-rounder Will Fuller. The oft-injured Fuller will miss Week 1 via suspension, making him a double threat for unavailability. One off-field misstep and he’ll miss serious time. One physically wrong step and he’ll find himself on the mend. His one-year deal is reflective of these conditions. Parker is no stranger to injuries, either.
Promising third-year receiver Preston Williams has struggled to keep himself off of the trainers’ table. The Dolphins have veterans Jakeem Grant and Isaiah Ford in reserve, as well as Lynn Bowden Jr. as a possible receiver-slash-running back. None of those backup guys have the game-breaking ability of Waddle. The 5-foot-9, 180-pounder is as explosive as any receiver in recent memory, and his game is so similar to that of Tyreek Hill’s that defensive coordinators will have their hands full.
In 2021 drafts, Waddle is a reserve pick. He’ll need time to get up to speed, and he’s “target buried” behind two receivers that are clearly the starters. That said, a strong offseason can put him into the starting slot role. Miami hardly utilized three-wide base sets in 2020, although the franchise didn’t have a real-life video game character on the roster. The dynasty outlook is much stronger for Waddle. He’s a player coaches scheme around and find ways to manufacture touches to go his way. While he has some room before we’ll suggest he can match Hill’s ridiculous contributions, consider that to be the potential ceiling for Waddle.