The PGA Tour’s West Coast swing begins with this week’s American Express at PGA West in La Quinta, California. Below, we’ll look for the best value bets in the 2021 American Express betting odds, with tournament matchups, placings and other PGA Tour prop bet predictions.
The tournament is played over two courses: Nicklaus Tournament Course and the Stadium Course. All members of the field will play each course in their first two rounds; those who make the 36-hole cut will play the Stadium Course both Saturday and Sunday.
Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 6:50 p.m. ET.
Matchup bets
Paul Casey vs. Charles Howell III (-105)
Casey is favored at -135 in this head-to-head tournament matchup, despite he and Howell both being +5000 to win. The Englishman is No. 55 in the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings, and Howell is 58th.
AMERICAN EXPRESS: Tee times, TV info | Field by the rankings
Howell makes the trip back to the mainland following a T-19 finish at the Sony Open in Hawaii, while Casey hasn’t played since the 2020 Masters. Howell also has more experience in this event and has gained an average of 1.02 strokes per round on the Stadium Course to just 0.56 for Casey.
Sam Burns (-118) vs. Brian Harman
Burns tied for sixth here last year with Harman finishing T-21. Burns was much better on the greens, but he also gained 2.66 strokes per round tee-to-green to rank ninth in the field among those who made the cut.
Placing bets
Top 5: Paul Casey (+900)
We took the value of Howell in the head-to-head matchup, but this is the first of our two bets on Casey. The three-time PGA Tour winner and 20-time international victor is seemingly being overlooked in an extremely top-heavy field. His previous PGA Tour wins have come against similar strengths of fields when he went back-to-back at the Valspar Championship in 2018 and 2019.
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Top 10: Doc Redman (+800)
Redman returns to PGA West following a T-29 finish last year. He gained an impressive 1.44 strokes per round with the putter and will look to recapture that success on these Bermudagrass greens. He had three top 10s in 22 events last calendar year, but two of those were part of the 2020-21 season.
Top European: Paul Casey (+350)
We’re going back to Casey because the competition in this group is just too soft. Sepp Straka (+550) is the next-highest ranked golfer in the Golfweek rankings at No. 65. Francesco Molinari (+800) is a former major champion, but he played just seven events last year with five missed cuts, including the 2020 Masters.
Group bets
Group A: Patrick Cantlay (+280)
Cantlay is the pre-tournament betting favorite at low odds of just +1200. He and the rest of Group A are risky outright bets in fields like this and this early in the season. Play it safe with the group odds in a five-man pool for the top-ranked golfer in the field.
Group B: Abraham Ancer (+350)
Ancer finished alone in second last year while ranking second in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green at 3.32 per round. He’s consistently a top ball-striker and he excelled on these greens last year with 2.38 SG: Putting per round.
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