2020 Super Bowl Prop Bets: How many rushing yards for 49ers RB Raheem Mostert?

Among the many prop bets available for those wishing to place a wager on Super Bowl LIV this Sunday are player props. How many yards will certain players gain? How many touchdowns? Will they score touchdowns?

Here we look at San Francisco 49ers RB Raheem Mostert and the number of rushing yards he will gain against the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2020 Super Bowl.

Raheem Mostert’s 2020 Super Bowl rushing yards

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Yards	Over	Under
60.5	-182	+150
100.5	+370	-500

Mostert had a career-high 220 rushing yards in the NFC Championship against the Green Bay Packers. It was the second-highest single-game playoff rushing total in NFL history.

How will he follow it up in Super Bowl LIV?

Raheem Mostert’s history

Mostert has only two career games with more than 100 yards and plays in an offense that uses running backs by committee. His rushing output against the Packers was in large part because he had more opportunities as a result of Tevin Coleman dislocating his shoulder and the 49ers holding a large lead from start to finish.

Mostert gained fewer than 60 rushing yards in each of his previous two games.

Excluding the 29 carries he received against the Packers, he averaged 9.3 rushing attempts per game this season. He averaged 5.6 yards per attempt, so using the average, he would be on track for about 52 yards.

Also see:

The Chiefs’ run defense in recent weeks

Kansas City has allowed only 93.5 rushing yards per game over itslast eight contests. The Chiefs have allowed only three individual backs to exceed 60 yards in that time frame — Melvin Ingram, Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry, all of whom are considered among the most talented feature backs in the league.

Mostert is not a feature back in the 49ers offense.

How will the game go?

Whether or not Mostert gets enough carries to get to 60.5 or 100.5 will depend on a couple of things — his effectiveness and whether the game is close.

The Chiefs can put up points in a hurry. If they build a lead of more than one score, it will be hard for the 49ers to keep running the ball. If the game is close throughout, Mostert can do it. Coleman might play but won’t be 100%. Mostert will get most of the carries, while Coleman and Matt Breida will be complementary pieces.

Our best bet

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The easy bet is to go UNDER 100.5 yards at -500, but it won’t win enough money to be worth the while. A $10 bet will gain only $2 in profit. Mostert’s history and the Chiefs’ play suggest he will not get over 100.

Less certain is whether to go Over or Under the 60.5 yards.

It will come down to this: If you believe the Chiefs will mostly be in control of the game and the 49ers will have to play catchup, take the UNDER 60.5 (+150), which gives you the best value. Every $10 wagered wins $15. This is where I would place my wager.

If you believe the game will be highly competitive and neither team will pull away, take the Over 60.5 (-182). Every $10 wagered will earn a profit $5.49.

If you believe the 49ers will control the game like they did against the Packers in the NFC title game, go big and bet Over 100.5 (+370) and go for a huge payout of $37 for every $10 wagered.

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