2020 NFL Draft: Odds, Betting Lines and Advice, and Predictions for how many quarterbacks will be drafted in the first round?
CFN Podcast: How Many QBs Will Go In 1st Round?
Pete Fiutak and Nick Shepkowski dive deep on whether or not five might be picked on Day One.
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CFN 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Rankings
from the college perspective …
QB | RB | WR | TE | OT | OG & C
DE | DT | LB | CB | Safeties
Greatest NFL Draft Picks From Each School
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
32 Greatest Draft Picks of All-Time
Full 2020 NFL Draft Order
CFN Top 106 Player Rankings (1st 3 rounds)
CFN in 60: 2020 Top Five Overall Prospects
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Just how much do you believe in Jacob Eason?
According to BetMGM, the line has been set at 4.5 quarterbacks will be selected in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft.
It’s easy to get to three. It’ll take a little bit of a stretch to get to four, but even that’s not much of a concern.
Can you get to five?
The BetMGM odds are +340 at over 4.5, and -455 at under 4.5, so the value call is obviously hoping for Eason, or Jalen Hurts, or even Jake Fromm possibly slipping into the end of the first round.
Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, and Justin Herbert are mortal locks to be drafted in the first round, and Jordan Love is almost certain to go somewhere in the top 20. And that’s where the problem kicks in.
How many teams really need a quarterback badly enough to take one in the first round? And considering not too many will be freaking out to get one after the first four go, the value for most teams is to wait.
Here are the key factors in figuring out how many quarterbacks might be selected?
1. Again, who needs one?
Cincinnati (with the 1st overall pick), Miami (5, 18, 26), and the Los Angeles Chargers (6) definitely do. Jacksonville needs one, but it said it likes the Gardner Minshew experience – at least for now. However, it has two picks – the 9 and the 20 – to potentially take one.
But Las Vegas has the 12 and the 19 – it might use one of those to try to upgrade from Derek Carr.
Could New England take one at the 23? It doesn’t seem like a Bill Belichick thing to do, but with a ton of picks over the next two seasons, he might want to move up.
Green Bay could pull a 2005 – when it had Brett Favre but took Aaron Rodgers – but with the 30th pick, and being so close to a Super Bowl, it’s likely going to dive in with one extra piece to make another run.
And then there’s Indianapolis. It doesn’t have a first rounder, but it has the second pick in the second round. It might try to move up into Day One.
2. History
Five quarterbacks went in the first round in 1999. Tim Couch (1), Donovan McNabb (2), Akili Smith (3), Daunte Culpepper (11) and Cade McNown (12) were all snapped up. In the 20 drafts since then, how many times have five quarterbacks gone in the first round?
Once, and it was a massive prop bet moment in 2018 when Baltimore took Lamar Jackson with the 32nd overall pick.
One time in 20 years. History isn’t kind to the over on the 4.5.
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3. The Market
Cam Newton is still out there. Jameis Winston is still out there. There are plenty of free agent quarterback possibilities and trade opportunities.
Do you really want to spend a first round pick on the fifth-best quarterback in the draft?
And finally …
4. Will There Be Football?
Think of it this way. If there wasn’t a 2019 college football season, Joe Burrow would be a mid-round flier, Tua Tagovailoa would be the No. 1 pick in the draft, and Justin Herbert would be an easy No. 2 choice.
What’s the field going to look like next year? There’s Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and a whole lot of guesses.
It’s possible that a team like Indianapolis with Phil Rivers, or New Orleans with Drew Brees, or Tampa Bay with Tom Brady decides to not mess around, take one in the first round, and groom the guy for 2022.
And The Call Is …
Burrow, Herbert, Tagovailoa and Love are all going to go in the first round.
All it takes is one more.
Yes, you’re bucking history, and yes, it’s a buyer’s market out there for quarterbacks, but between Jacksonville, New England, Las Vegas and maybe a team with an aging legend like Pittsburgh, Green Bay or Tampa Bay, someone is going to bite.
Whether it’s Jacob Eason’s big-time arm and upside, or the potential that Jalen Hurts really is as good as he looked at Oklahoma, there are too many teams that might want to grab one late and get better value than what it will take to get the other four quarterbacks.
CFN 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Rankings
from the college perspective …
QB | RB | WR | TE | OT | OG & C
DE | DT | LB | CB | Safeties
Greatest NFL Draft Picks From Each School
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
32 Greatest Draft Picks of All-Time
Full 2020 NFL Draft Order
CFN Top 106 Player Rankings (1st 3 rounds)
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