The 2020 NFL Draft begins Thursday and we break it down with a look at the 10 best prop bets for the NFL draft.
1. QB Tua Tagovailoa draft position: Over 5.5 (+110), Under 5.5 (-136)
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday, April 20 at 10 a.m. ET.
The Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers have been connected to Tagovailoa. They have the fifth and sixth overall picks, respectively.
This bet comes down to whether you believe the Chargers want him. If they do, they will trade up.
Teams targeting their franchise quarterback often must trade up if they don’t have the No. 1 overall pick. The Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens traded up in 2018. The Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans did in 2017. The Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles did in 2016.
The best bet here is UNDER and at -136 there is still some value.
2. QB Justin Herbert draft position: Over 5.5 (-110), Under 5.5 (-110)
With both the Over and Under set evenly, it is worth going either way. Again, it comes down to the Chargers and whether they feel they must draft a quarterback. If the Dolphins go with Tagovailoa, the Chargers could go with Herbert, however, they have a greater need at offensive tackle. You can go either way with this bet but the Chargers also have interest in QB Jalen Hurts later in the draft. I’m taking the OVER (-110).
3. DT Derrick Brown draft position: Over 8.5 (+110), Under (-136)
While many consider him a lock for the top 10, most commonly mocked to the Carolina Panthers with the seventh pick, defensive linemen who test below average athletically and don’t have a history of big production in the passing games often slip. With teams potentially trading up to target offensive linemen, Brown could slip out of the top 10. Go for the value here and take the OVER (+110).
4. Total Alabama players drafted in 1st round: Over 5.5 (+110), Under (-130)
Five Crimson Tide players are locks — QB Tua Tagovailoa, WR Jerry Jeudy, WR Henry Ruggs III, OL Jedrick Wills and S Xavier McKinney. The wild cards are pass rusher Terrell Lewis and CB Trevon Diggs. Both play premium positions. Only one of them has to get selected to hit the over. Go with the value and take the OVER (+110).
5. Exact outcome of first 3 draft picks
The favorite is Joe Burrow/Chase Young/Jeff Okudah at +115. History says teams will trade up for a quarterback. Go with one of two scenarios. Joe Burrow/Chase Young/Justin Herbert at +340 or Joe Burrow/Chase Young/Tua Tagovailoa at +360
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6. In which round will RB Jonathan Taylor be drafted? Round 1 (+275), Rounds 2-7 (-358)
There is no need to even consider him going undrafted, even though the odds are +10000. Considering his size, production and his testing at the combine, he will go in the first round. Take ROUND 1 (+275).
7. Which team will draft WR Henry Ruggs III?
The favorites are the Denver Broncos at +280 but a recent report suggests they will move up to target Jerry Jeudy. The safest pick would be the San Francisco 49ers at +425 but I have my eyes on a big payout. The Philadelphia Eagles are looking to move up and San Francisco could take a defensive lineman to replace DeForest Buckner. I’m betting on the EAGLES (+1500).
8. First running back drafted
The favorite is D’Andre Swift at -182. Considering his production, size and combine testing numbers, Jonathan Taylor (+200) is where the value is.
9. First offensive lineman drafted
The favorite is Jedrick Wills at -130. Next is Tristan Wirfs at +110. The New York Giants have mostly been connected to Wirfs until recently and Wills appears to be the pick. Go with the recent trend with WILLS (-130).
10. Josh Jones draft position: Over 27.5 (-110), Under 27.5 (-110)
With even odds either way, consider the premium nature of the offensive tackle position. Jones could go in the late teens. He has been connected to the Miami Dolphins who have the 18th and 26th picks. Take the UNDER (-110).
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