The NFL offseason is barely weeks old and we already have our real drama of the offseason: Star wideout Stefon Diggs deleted anything related to the Vikings from his social media, With rumors that he wanted a trade already making the rounds on Twitter, that was enough to turn NFL Twitter into that GIF of Michael Scott saying “Oh my God, it’s happening.”
I don’t actually think it will happen. Unless Minnesota gets wowed with offers, it doesn’t make much sense for the team to move on from its best receiver. Diggs has a team-friendly contract going forward and trading it would leave the team with a $9 million cap charge while saving only $5.5 million in the process. There’s not a lot in it for the Vikings.
A Diggs trade may be unlikely, but that doesn’t mean we won’t be seeing other NFL stars on the move. In fact, the opposite might be true. There are plenty of big-name players who could (and probably should) be dealt over the next month or two. I’ve picked out 10…
Stars who could be on the move this offseason
1. Patrick Peterson, CB Cardinals
I’d actually be shocked if the Cardinals don’t shop Peterson around. The veteran corner has demanded to be moved in the past before walking the demands back; but now, it’s actually in the team’s best interest to move on. Peterson is 32, missed the first half of the 2019 season after flunking a PED test and then played poorly after returning.
He’s also entering the final year of his contract and it’s unlikely that a rebuilding team will want to commit long-term money to a player who is clearly past his prime. Arizona may have to pay some of Peterson’s 2020 salary if it’s going to be able to make a deal. I’m not sure how many teams are willing to give up a draft pick and pay Peterson over $12 million for what will likely be a one-year rental.
2. Todd Gurley, RB Rams
If the Rams weren’t so desperate for cap space, trading Gurley would make little sense from a financial standpoint. Such a move would cost the team $12.6 million in dead money while only saving $4.65 million in 2020 cap space.
But here we are.
Los Angeles needs money to re-sign Jalen Ramsey and Cory Littleton while also figuring out a way to rebuild the offensive line without a first-round pick. Restructuring Jared Goff’s deal would free up a good chunk of cap space but trading Gurley should still be an option the front office explores.
It may prove difficult to find a willing trade partner with the 27-year-old running back (who may have an arthritic knee) coming off a down season. But the team that trades for him would be getting him a decent price. After two seasons, Gurley’s contract would essentially become a pay-as-you-go deal with a cap charge of about $9 million per season. That’s still an overpay for a running back, but not an egregious one if Gurley can get back to his 2018 form.
3. Cam Newton, QB Panthers
We’re about to find out how owner David Tepper feels about this roster. If he’s looking to blow things up, trading the best quarterback in the history of the franchise makes some sense. If not, and Tepper feels like this team can compete for a playoff spot in 2020, I don’t see how the Panthers will find a better option at a reasonable price of $21.1 million.
That’s Newton’s cap hit for the 2020 season, and Carolina can save $19.1 million of that if they deal him. It’s in the team’s best interest to at least gauge the league’s interest in Newton, who is coming of a second consecutive season that was cut short due to injury.
But Tepper’s recent comments about Newton won’t make it very easy to trade him. The Panthers owner basically said the team will first figure out if he’s healthy before deciding on his future. So if Carolina does openly shop Newton, teams may be wary of trading for possibly damaged goods. That would drive down his trade value. Then again, an NFL team traded a first-round pick for Sam Bradford as recently as 2016. Anything is possible.
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4. O.J. Howard, TE Buccaneers
It wouldn’t make much sense for the Buccaneers to hold on to an asset like Howard if Bruce Arians isn’t going to use him. After being billed as the next great NFL tight end, Howard struggled in the new offense and was targeted only 54 times last season.
The 2017 first-round pick would draw plenty of suitors if Tampa Bay put him on the block and could fetch a Day 2 pick if the Bucs were willing to trade him. If the 2019 season is any indication, he’s more valuable to the team as a trade chip than a tight end, as Arians doesn’t seem to be overly interested in featuring him in the offense.
He may have already been traded if not for his contract, which would stick the Bucs with a $3.5 million cap charge while providing no savings. That could very well drive up Tampa’s asking price to the point where no team would be willing to deal for him.
5. Darius Slay, CB Lions
A team like the Lions should not be so eager to give away a blue-chip talent like Slay, but there is no chance the 28-year-old will re-sign with the team next offseason, so it might as well try to get something in return for him.
Dealing the Pro Bowler would not only bring in a valuable draft pick (or two) but it would also free up nearly $10.5 million in cap space. And the Lions should have no problem finding a trade partner. Slay is one of the best coverage corners in the league, and top corners typically cost more than $10.5 million, which would be his cap hit number for his new team. Slay can play inside or out and match up with receivers of all sizes.
If Detroit puts him on the block, it’ll get calls from teams all over the league.
Stars who will definitely be on the move … either via trade or release
A.J. Bouye, CB jaguars
Bouye is coming off his worst season as a Jaguar, but life as an NFL cornerback is volatile. I would not be surprised if he bounces back and performs like one of the better No. 2 corners in the game. But even if he does, I’m not sure he’s worth the $15.4 million cap hit he’ll carry in 2020. The Jags should have no problem moving him, as he’d cost his new team $13.5 million. That’s not a bad number for a good starting cornerback.
Sammy Watkins, WR Chiefs
I’m sure the Chiefs would love to keep Watkins around but his cap hit balloons to $21 million next season. By dealing him, Kansas City would save $14 million of that, which could be used to retain star DT Chris Jones and go toward an extension for some dude named Patrick Mahomes. If they can’t find a team willing to pay Watkins’ $14 million base salary (or convince him to take a pay cut), releasing him will be the only option.
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Andy Dalton, QB Bengals
OK, so maybe Dalton isn’t really a star, but he’s a solid starting quarterback with a reasonable cap hit and there are teams out there who could use one of those right about now. (Yes, I’m talking about you, Chicago.) A team could wait for the Bengals to release Dalton but then he’d be on the open market, which could drive up his cap hit. By trading for him, his new team would get Dalton for the reasonable price of $17.7 million.
Everson Griffen, DE Vikings, and Olivier Vernon, DE Browns
I’m grouping these two together because they’re both in similar situations. Their teams could use the extra cap space, and while Vernon and Griffen still offer good production off the edge, both are probably overpriced at this point. Griffen’s case is particularly interesting. By registering more than six sacks and playing over 57% of the Vikings’ snaps in 2019, he earned the option to void his contract and become a free agent. That could make it harder to move him this offseason. Either way, it’s unlikely he’ll be in Minnesota next season.
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