4. TCU at West Virginia
LINE TCU -7.5
ATS PICK West Virginia
Let’s put that Big 12 home thing to the test.
The Mountaineers couldn’t do much of anything right with four giveaways in the 48-10 loss at Texas Tech. At least they helped cover the over. However, at home they were able to get by Baylor a few weeks ago, and again, lately being in familiar surroundings seems to make a difference.
TCU has been great no matter where it works, but three of its last four games were in Fort Worth. It won in Kansas a few weeks ago by seven, but Jayhawk QB Jalon Daniels was knocked out of the game.
As always, we’re going with the spreads here. That’s scary considering how many big plays the Mountaineers give up. However, out of the team’s four losses, three were on the road. Kansas was one outlier home loss, but that’s when it was just getting started with a team about as close to healthy as possible.
If you’re buying into the Big 12 home thing that’s happening, the 7.5 looks rather large. So does West Virginia +225 on the money line. I think TCU wins, but until the world tells us something different on the trend …