1. Illinois at Michigan
LINE Michigan -17.5
PICK Illinois
I know I’m going alone on my journey, and I don’t expect you to follow.
This is not for the faint of heart.
Let me put it this way. Illinois at Michigan has a whole slew of factors in play to potentially be way more of a fight than you think.
First, when it comes to the College Football Playoff chase, this doesn’t actually matter. Win or lose against Illinois, Michigan has to beat Ohio State next week. Take down the Buckeyes in Columbus, win the Big Ten title, go to the CFP. This is just for fun, giggles, and Senior Day.
Second, I’ve been all in on Michigan from the start of the season – I’ll hardly be stunned if this goes 34-10 Wolverines.
This has been one of the most consistently predictable teams with a formula that seems to work every game. Be okay in the first half, let the offensive line grind things down, dominate the second half.
Fine, but what happens if that O line doesn’t take over and the running game doesn’t rock?
Illinois lost two straight, and why? Michigan State and Purdue can throw, and no one else on the slate before that could other than Indiana in a strange early loss. That, as it turns out, was a total outlier.
So here’s the thing. Illinois is amazing against teams that can run and are mediocre at throwing. Michigan is just fine through the air, but it’s struggling lately with JJ McCarthy barely hitting half of his passes over the last three games.
Here’s the other thing – wind. There’s the potential for the weather to be less than ideal, but even if the snow holds off, it’s not going to be a day for the downfield pass.
No one has hit 200 yards rushing on Illinois. Not Wisconsin, not Minnesota, not Iowa. This is by far the best O line and ground game the Illini have faced, but if it can hold up, and if it can keep this a grind, and if the No. 2 defense in the country overall and the No. 1 D at picking off passes can get nasty …
17.5 is a bit too much to give this Illinois defense.
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