4. Iowa at Minnesota
POINT TOTAL 32.5
ATS PICK Over
No one knows better than I do what Minneapolis can be in late November. My knees are very, very aware of what 18 degrees feels like.
I’m also aware that Minnesota starting QB Tanner Morgan might be out, in which case this already obnoxious point total might dip even lower.
Along with my silly – yet shockingly accurate more often than not – belief that you take the under when the world sets the total at 70, 32.5 – even for an Iowa game – is just too low not to go with.
Last year’s game? 27-22 Iowa.
2020? 35-7 Iowa.
2019 23-19, 2018 48-31, both Iowa.
I’m not saying this can’t happen. Iowa won 17-10 in 2017 and 14-7 in 2016.
It won at Purdue a few weeks ago 24-3 and lost at Illinois 9-6. It was famous for playing brutally low-scoring games early in the season, but last week the offense didn’t do a thing against Wisconsin and it still won 24-10.
That’s more than 32.5.
Again, winter, injured quarterback, good defenses, rivalry game – a lot of this adds up to a low-scoring uggo.
But even 17-16 goes over. It’s worth the shot.