5. Minnesota at Nebraska
LINE Minnesota -15.5
PICK Minnesota
Basically, take everything I wrote last week in this same spot about ball control, running game, and defense when picking the under on Illinois-Nebraska – set at 50.5 in the 26-9 Illini win – and apply it to Minnesota.
There are just too many factors going against the Huskers, even at home.
The quarterback situation is iffy with Casey Thompson fighting through an injury, Minnesota is the best team in college football on third downs and the Huskers can’t come up with a third down stop, and then there’s the ground game.
The Gophers had one awful running game when most of the backfield was banged up against Purdue. Other than that, the Gophers can run on anyone, including a dominant Illinois team averaging six yards per pop.
Nebraska is 0-5 when allowing more than 175 rushing yards, and Minnesota might have that in the first half.
Granted, the Gophers have had their dud moments – they couldn’t do anything against Penn State until it was too late and the Purdue game was ugly. This shouldn’t be a problem as long as the lines hold up.
QB Tanner Morgan is fine, the defense shouldn’t get gouged, and there’s a chance this on the cheap – the line could move wildly just before the game depending on Thompson.