Sunday, January 19, 6:40 p.m ET / 3:40 p.m. PT
Green Bay Packers v. SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -7.5
Over – Under 44.5
The Packers didn’t even show up when they faced the Niners in San Francisco right before Thanksgiving. It was embarrasing. The 37-8 game was a dismantling. Yes, it was in November, but we really don’t want to take that game into account. Per Around the NFL, teams losing by more than 20 points in the regular season that had a rematch in the playoffs are 0-13. So let’s not pretend like the last game doesn’t matter.
Fine, let’s take last week into account. The Niners absolutely destroyed the Vikings. They took Dalvin Cook out of the game. They can do the same to Aaron Jones. That would make the Packers one-dimensional. Normally that wouldn’t matter because Aaron Rodgers would pick the opponent apart. He was sacked five sacks in the last matchup. He has one weapon in the receiving game in Davante Adams. No one else is showing up. Jimmy Graham is completely washed. The San Francisco pass rush looked scary last week against the Vikings. That could leave Rodgers trying to extend plays but he doesn’t have the talent around him to make old-timey amazing Rodgers plays.
Let’s stay on last week. The Packers were healthy coming off a bye week. They were facing the banged-up Seattle Seahawks. They should have won by two touchdowns. Instead the game came down to the wire and Green Bay needed Rodgers heroics to lock up the win.
Here’s how the Packers could win. They take advantage of Jimmy Garoppolo and his two to three bad passes a week. They need to force turnovers. To do so, they’ll need to first stop the Niners running game. That is not going to be easy — especially because the Packers have struggled to stop the run this year. Kyle Shanahan is going to go after the Packers defense’s weakness. That means we should see a lot of the running game and George Kittle and the running backs taking advantage of the linebackers in the passing game.
Picks:
San Francisco 49ers -7 (-135)
Green Bay Packers +4.5 1H
Under 44.5