As much as we in the media like to think our thoughts on quarterback evaluation matter, what actually does matter is the eventual landing spot for each player. Scheme fit, coaching staff and surrounding talent matter much more than what people like me say on the outside.
Recently, Jon Ledyard of “The Pewter Report” made that very point during a discussion of quarterback rankings. Those debates certainly move the needle — believe me, I’ve made a second career out of them — but ultimately whether you rank a quarterback QB1 in a class or QB3 has noting to do with their eventual success, or lack thereof, in the NFL. What matters is where they need up, and whether their coaches succeed, or fail, to put them in the best possible environment for professional success:
Y'all can argue about these QB prospects all day, but when the dust settles, the system they are in, the coaching they get, & the team around them is going to go further than anything else in distinguishing who is better than who amongst the top tier guys.
— Jon Ledyard (@LedyardNFLDraft) March 3, 2021
Regarding BYU quarterback Zach Wilson, many have made the connection between his style of play and a potential fit in the McVay/Shanahan/Stefanski/LaFleur offenses that are working their way through the NFL. With good reason. Wilson put up big numbers in that kind of system this season, so it seems like an ideal pairing of player and scheme.
But is it?
Recently Benjamin Solak dove into this topic, in a meaty piece that is well worth your time. As Solak frames it, if Wilson put up these kind of numbers in a system that has been known to perhaps prop up quarterbacks, then what does that say about him from an evaluation standpoint?
Then there is the idea of “process versus results.” When evaluating players, one of the questions you must answer is a two-pronged analysis: What is their process on a given play, and is that sustainable over time and in the NFL? Sometimes, there is a temptation to ignore the process and focus on the results, and argue that while the process might be flawed, those results are hard to ignore and can be achieved in the NFL. But that line gets blurred, and it is a difficult one to walk.
We’ll work through that in this video, highlighting what Wilson does well on those designs but illustrating areas of potential improvement, while diving into the idea of “process versus results:”
https://youtu.be/fGJ-aN1uDds
Ultimately, Wilson ran this offense well in college. But those questions of future success and “process versus results” still matter.