The Cleveland Browns sold their soul to acquire Deshaun Watson.
The franchise not only acquired a unapologetic player staring down a lengthy suspension following more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL would later describe as “predatory behavior,” but shipped away three first round picks and six picks total for the privilege. Backed into a corner and needing to protect their investment, the Browns gave Watson the largest guaranteed contract extension in NFL history — a five-year, $240 million pact that ties him to the team through 2026.
So far, this appears to be a bad deal.
The first six games of the Watson era in Cleveland failed to inspire hope or confidence in the future. He went 3-3 as a starter, and while that’s better than Jacoby Brissett was able to do in his stead (4-7), those wins came over the Houston Texans, Washington Commanders and Lamar Jackson-less Baltimore Ravens. His offense managed 14 points or fewer in four of those six games. He threw nearly as many interceptions in a brief stint as a Brown (five) as he did in his final full 16-game season as a Texan (seven).
There’s no metric in which Watson looks like an average quarterback, let alone one worthy of heroic compensation. By passer rating he wasn’t even the best QB on his team — his 79.1 is roughly 10 points below Brissett’s 88.9. His 184 passing yards per game would rank 30th, just behind Kenny Pickett and one spot above Baker Mayfield. His 4.8 yards per carry are a career low.
His 58.2 percent completion rate is a career worst, 12 points lower than his 2020 number and only better than one full-time starter: Zach Wilson. Watson’s -0.039 expected points added per play — a measure that stacks up his performance against what historical results suggest an average NFL quarterback would do — ranks 33rd among 37 quarterbacks who’ve played at least 180 snaps this season.
While early returns could have been the result of shaking off the rust that comes with sitting out 2021 due to a trade demand and league investigation, then nearly two-thirds the 2022 campaign due to suspension stemming from his 20-plus accusations of sexual misconduct, the Browns haven’t seen the kind of growth that could spur optimism about this trade.
Week 15 was his best performance of the season to date — a 161-yard, one touchdown, zero turnover day. He followed that up by completing less than half his passes and averaging 4.4 yards per attempt in a 10-17 loss to the New Orleans Saints. Week 17 saw him complete 50 percent of his attempts but throw for three touchdowns to beat the Commanders. In Week 18 he threw two interceptions that led to 10 Steeler points and a home win for the Browns’ biggest rivals.
Signs of growth are quickly walked back. Watson’s regression isn’t as blatant as Russell Wilson’s or Kyler Murray’s, but it was very real in a very strange season.
You could argue Watson will improve with a better supporting cast but … how are the Browns supposed to do that? Cleveland, thanks in large part to Watson’s $55 million cap number, has an estimated -$5 million in practical cap space for 2023. The team’s estimated spending room for 2024 is a league-worst -$21.9 million. Restructures and releases in the near future will change that, but it remains clear there’s a very limited chance to add free agents in the foreseeable future.
Normally the team could remedy that through the draft, but the Browns don’t have their own first rounder until 2025. Cleveland’s recent returns in rounds two and later haven’t been especially encouraging when it comes to instant impact players on the offensive side of the ball. The exception is Nick Chubb, who carried the offense early in the season but struggled comparatively late in the year with Watson in the lineup.
Would a recharged Chubb, gashing defenses and crushing cornerbacks provide the cover the Browns’ offense needs to restart its passing game? Would more familiarity with Amari Cooper create space for everyone else? Cleveland kinda/sorta has to hope so, because there isn’t much star power beyond those two.
Watson looked like a quarterback worth a two-year, $14 million flier this offseason, not one worth a mega-haul of draft picks and a curve-shattering contract extension. Of course, his ceiling suggests he’s capable of much more on the field but limited by the judgment that led to more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL described as “predatory behavior” off it. Cleveland bet his talent would be enough to gloss over those misgivings, mortgaging their short term future for the chance to follow the Bengals’ path to greatness.
That hasn’t happened, and over a small sample size there are few signs suggest it will. If this is the version of Watson that’s here to stay, the Browns badly need to get him help. Only they can’t, because they used up those assets trading for, then extending, the league’s 33rd-most efficient quarterback in 2022.
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