The Jaguars were placed at No. 19 in Frank Schwab’s Yahoo! Sports 2024 NFL offseason power rankings on Friday, with the senior writer noting they might be placed too low due to recency bias following Jacksonville’s slide from 8-3 to missing the playoffs last season.
Schwab analyzed Jacksonville’s biggest move of the year — quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s five-year, $275 million contract extension — in depth, making points for and against the Jaguars making him one of the highest-paid players in NFL history.
“Had Lawrence not suffered a high ankle sprain against the Bengals, perhaps the Jaguars wouldn’t have lost five of their last six games,” Schwab wrote.
“Maybe they would have won the AFC South and some of the hype for C.J. Stroud would be redirected to Lawrence, who helped Jacksonville to the 2022 AFC South title. There might not have been such sticker shock on that contract extension.
Schwab ultimately determined the club didn’t do enough to support Lawrence this offseason, giving Jacksonville a C- grade for its moves in free agency and April’s NFL draft.
Although Schwab praised the signing of center Mitch Morse and draft selection of wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr., he also noted the loss of wide receiver Calvin Ridley, the releases of multiple starting defensive backs and Jacksonville’s low consensus overall draft grade.
He raised concerns about defensive tackle signee Arik Armstead’s durability and wide receiver signee Gabe Davis’ consistency, too.
Still, Schwab believes the Jaguars can contend in the AFC when Lawrence plays his best football, leading him to suggest they’re capable of exceeding the expectations of their standing in his power rankings.
He offered the following “crystal ball” preview for how Jacksonville’s 2024 season could play out, as well as potential best and worst-case scenarios for the team.
The crystal ball says …
The Jaguars might be underrated because of some recency bias. Trevor Lawrence got hurt when Jacksonville was seemingly cruising to a division title. The Jaguars fell into a deep slump to miss the playoffs and the Texans became the AFC South team everyone focused on this offseason. The Jaguars are a flawed team but maybe better than we remember. Lawrence seems likely to play well enough for the Jaguars to be competitive, then the rest depends on the team around him. For now, we’ll leave the Jaguars out of the playoffs in the AFC, but that might be an overreaction to what we saw late last season.
Best-case scenario
On Dec. 4, when Trevor Lawrence dropped back for a third-down pass with less than six minutes to go in a tied game against the Bengals, the Jaguars had an 8-3 record and were in field-goal range to take a 31-28 lead. Lawrence had his ankle stepped on, took a 7-yard sack, the Jaguars missed the field goal and lost in overtime. If that’s just a normal incompletion, maybe the Jaguars make a closer field goal, improve to 9-3 that Monday night, Lawrence doesn’t suffer an injury that would hinder him the rest of the season, and they’d go on to win the AFC South with 11 or 12 wins. How much different would the conversation surrounding the Jaguars be then? You can’t totally dismiss the Jaguars’ finish — Lawrence’s injury certainly impacted how Jacksonville’s season played out but it wasn’t the only factor — but it’s also fair to wonder what might have been. If you project the Jaguars to win 12 games and the AFC South, that’s practically what they were on pace to do last season before Lawrence’s injury.
Nightmare scenario
The Jaguars clearly expect Trevor Lawrence to be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. They’re paying him as such. What if we get another season of Lawrence not exactly struggling but also not quite living up to the hype? Now there’s a $275 million price attached to his results. The same questions about the Jaguars’ cast remain, and might be even more pronounced after a so-so offseason. There are also questions about the direction of the offense. Offensive coordinator Press Taylor was retained after some criticism, even though the Jaguars’ defense was arguably better than the offense (the defense was 10th in DVOA while the offense was 18th) and defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell was fired and replaced by Ryan Nielsen. If Lawrence doesn’t play great and the Jaguars don’t make the playoffs, you have to wonder if Doug Pederson will be around for the 2025 season. Another coordinator firing probably wouldn’t cut it and it’s not like the Jaguars would be making a change at quarterback.
Behind Jacksonville in the rankings, in descending order, was Tampa Bay, Seattle, Minnesota, the Los Angeles Chargers, New Orleans, Arizona, Las Vegas, Tennessee, the New York Giants, Washington, Denver, New England and Carolina.
Teams in front of the Jaguars will be revealed individually on Yahoo! Sports through July 31.
Find Schwab’s full outlook on the Jaguars here.