[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]
The Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty meet Wednesday for Game 4 of their WNBA Finals best-of-5 playoff matchup. Tipoff from Barclays Center in Brooklyn is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Aces vs. Liberty Game 4 odds, and make our expert WNBA picks and predictions.
WNBA Finals series: Aces lead 2-1
The Aces had a chance to eliminate the Liberty in Game 3, but New York stayed alive with an 87-73 victory as a 1.5-point underdog. Las Vegas is now 0-2 against the spread (ATS) in 2 road playoff games, with the Under cashing in each of those outings. Las Vegas is averaging just 69.5 points per game (PPG) in those 2 road playoff games, too.
The big news is that the Aces will be missing 2 starters for Game 4. Aces G Chelsea Gray, the 2022 WNBA Finals MVP, and C Kiah Stokes are both out with foot injuries.
Gray, who is averaging 15.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 7.3 assists per game in the Finals, exited Game 3 with her injury in the 4th quarter. Stokes, who had 9 rebounds in Game 3 and is averaging 2.7 points and 6.7 rebounds in the Finals, isn’t sure when she hurt her foot. She is averaging 2.8 points and 7.9 rebound in the postseason.
The Liberty snapped an 0-3 ATS skid in Game 3, and the Under (172) cashed Sunday to snap a 5-0 Over run. New York is still 2-6 ATS in the past 8 games overall. The Liberty have scored 84 or more points in 4 of 5 home games in these playoffs.
Game 4: Aces at Liberty odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:06 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Aces +194 (bet $100 to win $194) | Liberty -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Aces +5.5 (-104) | Liberty -5.5 (-118)
- Over/Under (O/U): 169.5 (O: -106 | U: -114)
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]
Game 4: Aces at Liberty picks and predictions
Prediction
Aces 83, Liberty 80
Moneyline
The ACES (+194) were favorites in Game 3, and they ended up laying an egg as the Liberty extended their season. Now, the shoe is on the other foot, and Las Vegas is a giant value as a moderate underdog.
The line has moved in the Liberty’s favor with the injuries to the Aces’ Gray and Stokes, and many expect the home team to cruise in this one.
I’m predicting Las Vegas will thwart the doubters and successfully defend last season’s title with a win Wednesday.
Behind star F A’ja Wilson (20.3 PPG, 11.3 RPG in the Finals) and G’s Kelsey Plum (26.0 PPG, 3.7 assists per game) and Jackie Young (19.3 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 4.3 APG), the Aces pull this off.
Yes, the Aces have struggled in the postseason on the road, going just 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. But they’re also a high-octane offense, and they’ll get the bounce-back in Game 4, hoisting the trophy once again.
Against the spread
If you can’t bring yourself to play the Aces on the moneyline to win straight up, at least play LAS VEGAS +5.5 (-104) to keep it within 3 buckets.
There is risk as the Aces are 1-6 ATS in the past 7 road games. However, the Liberty are just 1-4 ATS in the past 5 home outings. Las Vegas is 19-8 ATS in the past 27 meetings, too.
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
Over/Under
The UNDER 169.5 (-114) is worth playing in Game 4. The intensity will be ratcheted up to an all-time high, and it’s a good idea to buck most of the trends.
The Over has cashed in 10 of the past 14 in the series, while cashing in 4 of the past 5 in New York. But that lone Under was in Game 3.
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.
Access NBA coverage:
HoopsHype | Bulls Wire | Celtics Wire | Nets Wire | Rockets Wire | Sixers Wire | Spurs Wire | Thunder Wire | Warriors Wire | LeBron Wire | Rookie Wire | List Wire
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=3729]w