Facing Bill Belichick on the road is the ultimate litmus test for any young passer.
During the 2018 season, Mahomes lost at Gillette Stadium in another thrilling game between the Chiefs and the Patriots that was decided in the closing seconds, on a Steven Gostkowski field goal. But this past year, Mahomes had a chance to go into Foxborough and pull out a win. Early in the second quarter, the Chiefs faced a 3rd and 19 near midfield, not exactly ideal conditions to move the chains, but Mahomes pulled it off:
So much goes into this conversion from the quarterback. Kansas City begins this play in a Y-Iso alignment, with Kelce alone on the right side of the formation. Mahomes sees a safety down shaded near the box over the tight end, and anticipates a potential bracket coverage on Kelce. Given how Belichick has defended Kelce in the past, as well as he defended tight ends such as Zach Ertz in 2019 (like using Stephon Gilmore on him for critical downs) Mahomes would be right to expect such a coverage.
But right before the snap, the Patriots rotate their coverage and the safeties drop into a two-high look and use man coverage principles underneath. So Mahomes needs to diagnose that, which he does. Then, he needs to buy a little time for this play, given the yardage they need to gain, which he does. That, however, comes at a cost. Jamie Collins, the Patriots linebacker, brings late pressure in the form of a green dog blitz after spying the quarterback, which the QB has to stare down before releasing this throw.
Which he puts right on Hill to move the chains.
Look at this play from the end zone angle for a true appreciation of what Mahomes did:
You cannot make this throw without the arm talent – which we know Mahomes possesses – or without the mental acumen to read the rotation, understand and feel where the pressure is coming from, and the mental toughness to hang in the pocket with Collins closing down on you.
Fast forward to the AFC Championship Game.
Everyone remembers the run Mahomes pulled off before halftime, to give the Chiefs the lead before the second quarter ended. But that run was set in motion by another third down conversion that is a prime example of the offensive paradigm shift concept, and Mahomes’ own growth as a passer.
Facing a 3rd and 3, the Chiefs bring Mecole Hardman in motion pre-snap from right to left. For context, in the first quarter Kansas City scored their first touchdown of the game when Mahomes simply flipped the football to Hill after using this same motion, on a fly sweep. Now, the Tennessee Titans are looking for that potential play from Mahomes and a flip to Hardman.
Instead, the rookie releases to the flat and the Chiefs run another Air Raid staple: Mesh Sit. Two routes cross underneath while Sammy Watkins sits down over the top of the crossers.
Mahomes sees immediately that the Titans drop into a zone coverage scheme and look to wall off both routes underneath. He also feels pressure off his left edge in the form of Harold Landry. So the QB needs to buy just enough time and space, after making the right coverage read, to find Watkins over the top of the crossers.
He does just that:
Again, the end zone angle, which displays Mahomes creating time in the pocket with his feet and feel, and the throw to Watkins through the teeth of the defense:
Two plays later, Mahomes would tightrope along the left sideline for 27 yards, into both the end zone, and NFL lore.
Then, of course, you cannot discuss Mahomes’ 2019 season without at least mentioning the Super Bowl, and the huge conversion late to Hill:
Richard Sherman retreats a few steps right before the snap, and then one safety drops down after the snap. The 49ers are indeed in zone coverage, but instead are running a three-high zone coverage called Cover 6 Buzz. The weak safety is the safety rotating down while the strongside safety drops to the deep middle of the field.
Watkins runs a deep in route, and the outside cornerback to the top of the screen has to respect that route because he has no safety help over the top. Kelce also runs a deep crosser, which draws the attention of the linebackers and the safety rotating down into the box. That allows Hill to get vertical and it creates a one-on-one with him and the free safety, and the FS is in a bad spot.
Mahomes does all this with pressure bearing down on him in the form of DeForest Bucker, and the added pressure of the fact that the Super Bowl was on the line.
We all know how that ended.
Which leads us to this news of Mahomes’ contract, and the completion of the paradigm shift. The thought that he would be an unlikely NFL quarterback seems so outdated now, but was almost conventional wisdom just a few years ago. Andy Reid, by playing to Mahomes’ past as a quarterback, found the way to unlock the quarterback that he could become. Mahomes, from there, built upon that early success with his mental growth as a passer combined with his incredible traits for the position.
In the years since then, we have seen other quarterbacks viewed with similar skepticism have success, thanks to their respective coaches pushing that paradigm of offensive philosophy into the future. Deshaun Watson, under the guidance of Bill O’Brien (as much as we here at Touchdown Wire like to give the coach grief) has become the passer that only a few thought he could be coming out of Clemson. Following in the footsteps of Mahomes is of course Lamar Jackson, who had his own breakout season ago with the Baltimore Ravens, running a very diverse offense with vertical concepts, heavy tight end packages and designed runs.
By drawing more from the experience of their young QBs, and less from their own experience as coaches, offensive minds such as Reid and Eric Bieniemy, O’Brien, Greg Roman and others have changed the future of offensive thought. As the NFL is a copycat league, you can expect to see more and more coaches turn their offenses over to their young passers, in an effort to duplicate what Mahomes and others have done.
And with the news of this contract, there are sure to be more passers following in Mahomes’ footsteps, financially speaking, in the years to come.