Welcome to Layup Lines, our daily NBA newsletter where we’ll prep you for a tip-off of tonight’s action, from what to watch to bets to make. Subscribe here to get it delivered to your inbox every afternoon.
Nikola Jokic just had such a good season that it’s breaking people’s brains … and their computers.
I know that not every basketball fan loves advanced analytics. In fact, some actively dislike them. But like it or not, Jokic just set the record for the best single-season Box Plus-Minus (BPM) of all time. He had the best-ever Player Efficiency Rating (PER), too.
I get it. Advanced analytics aren’t always the easiest things to understand. Some people are especially quick to dismiss calculations if the results of the equation do not fit their narrative. But I think a lot of people have a massive misunderstanding of what these stats actually do.
At the end of the day, advanced stats aren’t just a random number generator assigned to players. They’re based on events that happen in a basketball game that then translate into winning. Players perform better in these stats the more often these winning plays occur. Winning basketball games is a good thing.
Jokic was able to accomplish things never done before on an NBA court. We don’t need to dismiss the incredible achievements of Joel Embiid or Giannis Antetkounmpo, and we need to consider more than just numbers. Stats have flaws, and they don’t always paint the whole picture.
But we also shouldn’t disregard the statistical evidence of Jokic’s success.
The Tip-Off
Some NBA goodness from around the USA TODAY Sports network.
It was an unmitigated disaster watching the Lakers in 2021-22, and fans of the franchise desperately needed any distraction they could find.
Fortunately, HBO’s Winning Time, about the Showtime Lakers in 1979-80, has provided exactly that. It’s a welcome change of pace for basketball fans in Los Angeles. One thing that’s especially cool about the show, though, is that you don’t need to be a basketball fan to enjoy it.
This is how Jason Segel, who portrays former Lakers coach Paul Westhead, explained it to me:
“When I saw the pilot, I thought to myself: ‘This is to basketball what Boogie Nights is to porn.’ It’s about it, sure. But what it’s really about is the setting and characters and the era and the costumes.”
Watch the show, which airs on Sundays, and you’ll see what he means.
Segel (who you know from How I Met Your Mother and Forgetting Sarah Marshall) told me that still watches every Lakers game, and he had plenty of other interesting things to say about the show and the real-life NBA season.
One to Watch
Timberwolves (-3.5, -160) vs. Clippers (+130), O/U 230.5, 9:30 PM ET
(All odds via Tipico.)
There are two play-in games tonight, and one of them features Kevin Durant. Obviously, more fans are going to talk about the match that showcases a two-time NBA Finals MVP. However, I think the second game of the night is far more interesting.
I’m not just trying to give the alt basketball take, either. The Clippers and the Timberwolves are both fascinating basketball teams. I’m really excited about a Patrick Beverley revenge game and I hope that we see an Anthony Edwards performance that transcends the game of basketball.
Who’s in and out?
— Nets: Seth Curry (ankle) is probable against the Cavs
— Cavs: Jarrett Allen (finger) is out against the Nets
— Clippers: Luke Kennard (hamstring) and Nic Batum (ankle) are questionable against the Timberwolves
— Timberwolves: D’Angelo Russell (illness) is questionable against the Clippers
Shootaround
— USA TODAY’s experts vote on MVP, Rookie of the Year, and more: Is Nikola Jokic or Joel Embiid the winner?
— NBA draft lottery odds: Which team has the best shot at the No. 1 pick in 2022?
— Knicks offseason preview: HoopsHype’s Yossi Gozlan explains what to do with RJ Barrett, and more
— Sixers Wire’s Ky Carlin offers one thought on every Philadelphia player at the end of the season
Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).