Why Wisconsin Will Win
– No, the offense hasn’t been anything special, and it certainly isn’t the dominant force it’s been over the last two-plus decades when it comes to running the ball, but there are still parts that work like they’re supposed to. Converting on third downs has been like pulling teeth, but the pace and tempo are still at Wisconsin’s level – the team dominates the time of possession battle, keeping the ball for a nation’s high 36:45 per game. Wake Forest will never seem like it has the offense on the field – it averages just over 28 minutes in the time of possession battle.
– No, the Wisconsin offense really hasn’t been anything special, but the Wake Forest defense could be the cure for that. The Demon Deacon secondary has been toasted for most of the year, and the D as a whole can’t come up with stops. It’s bad on third downs, awful against the run, and it’s too easy to power on the front line. The Badger passing game – even without a slew of top receives – should be able to move the chains.
– The Badger D really is that good. It hasn’t seen any help from the offensive side for stretches, but it has yet to allow more than 340 yards, hasn’t given up 150 yards on the ground, and it’s a brick wall on third downs, allowing a nation-fewest 25% conversion rate. The Wake Forest offense can move, but the O line gives up way too many plays behind the line. The Badgers don’t have a high-end pass rush, but they’ll have their moments.
Why Wake Forest Will Win
– Wake Forest takes the ball away, and Wisconsin gives the ball away. The Demon Deacons might not do much defensively, but they’re great at forcing mistakes with 16 takeaways on the year, a +13 turnover margin, and three or more takeaways in four games. It’s this simple – Wake Forest is 4-0 when it comes up multiple takeaways, and 0-4 when it doesn’t. Wisconsin is 0-3 when turning the ball over multiple times, and 3-0 when it doesn’t.
– No, really. The Wisconsin offense doesn’t work. Graham Mertz will hit a few third down throws, but with a banged up receiving corps, there aren’t enough big things happening down the field for a passing game averaging fewer than 200 yards per game. On the flip side, Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman- who has thrown ten touchdown passes and just one pick – has to get and stay hot.
– The Demon Deacons have a way of out-Wisconsining, Wisconsin … sort of. They can’t power the ball, and they don’t own the ball and the time of possession, but they don’t get hit with a lot of penalties – that’s a Badger thing. They always score in the red zone, the special teams are fine, and again, they own the turnover battle. Wisconsin isn’t good enough to not win all the relatively unnoticed stats.